How far are we from an apparent international geopolitical conflict escalating into World War III?
After the brutal slaughter carried out by Hamas, in which around 1300 Israeli civilians were killed and 120 were kidnapped, the risk of the general international tension developing into open conflicts is becoming increasingly clear. The biggest problem is that the scenarios of a quick lowering of political tensions and pacification – which is arguably the best solution – do not seem realistic at this moment, but the danger of further intensification of conflicts, both in the region and internationally, is growing.
Although there is a sad question about what level of retaliation Israel should tolerate as acceptable, it is clear that revenge in itself no longer makes sense because since the beginning of the Israeli bombing of Gaza, 2,500 people have already been killed, of which 1,180 are women and children. About 8,700 of them were wounded. Israel will now surely undertake a fierce military attack in Gaza and/or towards its neighbors, in which it will not hesitate in the face of new civilian victims, and such a move will also receive a response from the other side.
Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan, was very explicit: he described the times we live in as ‘the most dangerous the world has seen in decades’. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio, who as the founder of Bridgewater Associates has access to comprehensive data sources processed by top analysts, also estimates that we are close to World War 3. And Ray Dalio – historian and author of several books – also says that Israel-Hamas wars, as well as Russia-Ukraine, must cause repulsion and fear in everyone because these “hot wars” can enter into a spiral that leads to a wide international military conflict.
Fortune cautions against his thesis: “‘It seems to me that the odds of moving from limited conflict to a more unbridled hot world war involving major powers have risen from 35 percent to about 50 percent over the past two years,'” the billionaire wrote in a LinkedIn post in Thursday… Now, Dalio says he believes the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars will be ‘brutal’ until the end. And worse, he fears the conflicts won’t end ‘until one side clearly defeats the other’ or until the world’s superpowers promote peace. ‘These kinds of brutal wars are more likely to expand than to abate,’ he said. ‘I hope the emerging picture of what that would look like will encourage restraint at this critical time when we are on the brink.‘
The expansion and intensification of the conflict in the Middle East seems quite objectively certain. Only new oil shocks, which would be the most likely consequence, would prevent any warming of global growth, and would lead to a new rise in prices (a 10 percent jump in oil prices contributes 0.4 percentage points to global inflation), which combined with record the level of debt is a toxic mix. New economic stresses will only increase the tension and probably intensify the escalation.
According to Bloomberg, the situation is so frightening that French President Emmanuel Macron called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by phone and asked him to respect humanitarian laws and spare civilians. This unusual information, which was given to Bloomberg by an unnamed senior French official, actually reflects the unpredictability of the further course of the conflict: If the president of one of the largest European Union (EU) member states appeals to the prime minister of a country with a democratic order and the rule of law to spare the civilians, as he says, then it is clear that on a global scale there has been a tectonic shift in the acceptance of extreme violence as a political tool. Otherwise, the very thought of exterminating a part of the civilian population due to the confrontation with terrorists would be unthinkable.
The situation is extremely delicate because the question is how the neighborhood will react, as well as all important Arab nations. In Qatar – the recent host of the soccer World Cup – tension is very high; we should not forget that during the dramatic withdrawal of the Americans from Afghanistan, they transported the Taliban back to their homeland by plane and thus significantly helped the formation of one of the most radical violent regimes on the planet. It is also unknown what exact positions will be taken by rich and powerful Saudi Arabia, which is still treated as an ally of the United States (U.S.), but has a long history of helping several radical Arab movements and organizations.
The U.S. Secretary of State urgently went to a meeting with Mohammed bin Salman, the leader of S. Arabia, but the Americans only announced that “the meeting was productive”. For Iran, there is no particular doubt that they are still in positions of religious conflict with the West, and it is a nation of 88 million people that has withstood decades of U.S. sanctions.There is no doubt that it will support Hamas.
No one knows exactly how the much smaller players, who are still strong enough to influence the course of the Israel-Hamas conflict and its potential internationalization, will position themselves, Radio Sarajevo reports.
E.Dz.
