President of the Foreign Trade Chamber of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Ahmet Egrlic explained that the economy of BiH will feel the effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in a direct way because foreign trade with those countries could be reduced, and indirectly due to energy imports.
”When it comes to direct damages, if there are more serious sanctions and isolation of Russia from European Union (EU)countries and interruption of payment transactions, then we can expect to lose one market of over 100 million BAM, ” Egrlicstated for agency Fena.
”In the structure of exports, most are pharmaceutical products, worth about 81 million KM, and that, he added, will hit the pharmaceutical industry the most, followed by our export of fruits and vegetables to Russia.
That is less than one percent of our total exports, and when it comes to Ukraine, there are significantly lower exports, only 9.6 million KM and it is negligible in the total foreign trade. Pharmaceutical products also go to Ukraine the most, and we mostly import wood assortments (plywood), which we use as raw materials, ” noted Egrlic.
He stressed that the indirect damage could be significantly greater due to the import of energy products in BiH, primarily mineral fuels and gas from Russia.
”We currently have no alternative. This can affect our economy and affect the general growth of prices. General demand will be reflected in BiH because, as we can see on the London Stock Exchange, oil has reached record high prices, the highest since 2014. The fact is that energy products significantly affect the final price of all products and if such price growth continues, we will have an increase in the price of almost all goods, ” Egrlic told.
”As for how the Russian-Ukrainian crisis affects BiH’s main foreign trade partners, such as some EU members, Egrlic mentioned he personally feared a complete disruption in supply chains and rising prices in general.
The processing industry in BiH will continue to work for our customers, as it has been so far, but the input parameters and raw materials will probably become more expensive and there will be a struggle to raise and balance the final prices. There may be some problems, but it is difficult to make predictionsand it all depends on how long the Russian-Ukrainian crisis will last,” Egrlic added.
”If all this is completed quickly, according to him, it can be expected that there will be a stabilization in supply and stabilization of prices. However, if the crisis continues and if the demand for various goods increases, it will cause prices to rise, and then it is still difficult to predict all.
After the pandemic, this is a kind of message about how important it is to have commodity reserves that can adequately respond to this and other crises, ” Egrlic concluded.
E.Dz.
