Somalia is ready to go to war to prevent Ethiopia from recognizing the breakaway territory of Somali land and building a port there, a senior adviser to the Somali president has said.
A memorandum of understanding signed on January 1 to allow landlocked Ethiopia to develop a naval base off the coast of Somaliland has shaken the Horn of Africa, one of the world’s most volatile regions.
Somalia claims that Somaliland is part of its territory and has declared the agreement null and void. Last Sunday, its president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, called on Somalis to “prepare to defend our homeland” as rallies against the deal were held in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia.
“We are looking for all diplomatic options and I think Ethiopia will come to its senses, but we are ready for war if Abiy wants war,” the adviser said, referring to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Ethiopia and Somalia fought a conflict from 1977 to 1978 over the disputed region, and tensions still run deep. Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006 to oust Islamists from Mogadishu, helping fuel the Al-Shabaab insurgency, and today is one of the largest contributors to the African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia.
The adviser said the port deal “took Somalia by surprise”. He claimed that Abiy had denied any intention to seek access to the sea through Somaliland when questioned by Mohamud at a summit in Saudi Arabia in November.
Somaliland was a British colony until 1960. The territory enjoyed five days of independence before voluntarily reuniting with Somalia, a former Italian colony. It was an uneasy union that ended with the secession of Somaliland in 1991, after a decade-long liberation struggle against a Soviet-backed military regime. Today, Somaliland is a de facto independent state, with its own currency, parliament and overseas diplomatic missions.
For two decades, Somalia has been ravaged by Al-Shabaab, a powerful affiliate of Al-Qaeda, making it one of the most dangerous countries in the world. In contrast, Somaliland is relatively peaceful, although recent conflicts on its eastern border with Somalia have tarnished its stable image.
However, it has not yet been recognized by any country. Western governments won’t recognize it until African countries do, but the continent’s leaders have given up, following the African Union’s long-standing policy against redrawing national borders inherited from colonialists.
Without recognition, Somaliland struggles to attract investment and is cut off from international finance, which is mostly channeled through Mogadishu. In an interview with the Observer, Somaliland’s foreign minister, Essa Kayd, said the port deal with Ethiopia would “legitimize our self-determination” and could cause a “domino effect” of other countries recognizing the territory.
“Recognition is what we have been fighting for all this time and it is the most important thing we can offer the people of Somaliland,” Kayd said.
However, there is confusion over the content of the agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia. Neither side published the full text.
Somaliland’s president, Muse Bihi Abdi, said Ethiopia had agreed to give official recognition in exchange for a 50-year lease on a stretch of coast, which it will develop for “maritime and commercial” purposes. However, Ethiopia said it only agreed “to make a detailed assessment towards taking a position on Somaliland’s recognition efforts”.
A Western diplomat familiar with the deal described it as a “memorandum of misunderstanding.”
“Ethiopia insists that it has not agreed to recognize Somaliland,” the diplomat said.
Kayd said the deal was based on Ethiopia recognizing Somaliland.
“Without that, nothing will happen. Ethiopia needs access to the sea and we need recognition, so you can see how those needs can be addressed,” he said.
Ethiopia became the world’s largest landlocked country in 1993 when Eritrea seceded along with its Red Sea coast. In October, Abiy said this was a historic mistake that threatened Ethiopia’s survival, sparking fears of war with Eritrea.
“We are projected to have a population of 150 million in 2030,” Abiy said.
On Thursday, Abiy’s adviser drew parallels between Ethiopia’s quest for access to the sea and its construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a potentially transformative hydroelectric project on the Blue Nile that was built despite Egypt’s objections and military threats.
Somalia is unlikely to attack Ethiopia while it is fighting Al-Shabaab, said Alan Boswell, Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group. Still, the deal could open new cracks in the turbulent region, Klix.ba reports.
