In a dangerous world, Europe finds itself in an alarming position, as reported by media.
The bloodiest war on the continent since 1945 rages in Ukraine, with Russia posing a threat from the Baltic to cyberspace.
If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he could undermine NATO, the cornerstone of European security. The continent’s economy is vulnerable to shocks caused by industrial policies and protectionism elsewhere. Eurosceptic populists are high in the polls.
Whether they succeed partially depends on the choices of three women: Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy, and Marine Le Pen, the leading French populist.
Von der Leyen has led the European Union’s (EU) executive branch since 2019 and is running for a second term. She is seen as having done a good job due to the EU’s collective response to Russian aggression and helping European integration at a crucial moment.
She needs the votes of 27 EU leaders and a majority in the European Parliament. In theory, she needs support from conservative, liberal, and socialist groups.
However, her victory is not certain as she barely passed the first vote in 2019.
Meloni has been Italy’s Prime Minister for a second year and is expected to perform well in the EU elections. Supporting von der Leyen could increase her chances in the elections.
However, their good relations have angered many political representatives in several countries. The reason is Meloni’s friendship with Viktor Orban, but also because she compared the EU and the Soviet Union.
Her party fights cultural wars at home, but on security and economic issues, she has led Italy pragmatically. She should not be excluded from the political mainstream.
Expectations are also high for Le Pen and her party in the upcoming European elections.
The media describes her as “a fiery person with a long history of xenophobia and courting Russia” who wants to create a group of nationalists that would pull Europe to the right.
The stakes are high as one path could bring stable leadership at the EU level, but it is also warned that the alternative path could be catastrophic.
European politics has become so fragmented that it is possible to imagine not finding a parliamentary majority for von der Leyen or any other candidate for Commission president. This would cause a constitutional crisis at the worst time, with Ukraine in conflict and the potential for Trump’s victory looming.
If they make the wrong choice, European centrists could destabilize the EU and help create what they have long feared: a united far-right movement.
