With U.S.-brokered peace talks on Ukraine on hold due to the war in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to try to extend military gains with new offensives against his southern neighbor, further increasing pressure on Kiev.
Revenue from soaring global oil prices is filling Russia’s war chest, while U.S. air defense systems are rapidly being depleted by Iranian attacks across the Gulf, raising concerns that Ukraine will be left with fewer resources in the fifth year of the Russian invasion.
Ukraine’s European allies have pledged continued strong support, but disagreements over a major 90 billion euro European Union loan to cover Kiev’s military and economic needs over two years point to growing challenges.
The refusal of NATO allies to deploy naval forces to restore tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has drawn a sharp response from U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a new fault line that could have consequences for Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought to keep Washington’s attention by offering expertise in defending against Iran’s Shahed drones, sending more than 200 military experts to the Gulf. But Trump has rejected the offer, saying the United States does not need Kiev’s help.
As new signs of division emerge among Western allies, Vladimir Putin and his generals are mulling plans for a spring-summer campaign along the more than 750-mile front line.
The Russian military appears to be preparing for a new attempt to seize the part of the eastern Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control, as well as possible offensives in several other sectors.
Analysts say Moscow has been building up reserves and that operations could accelerate as the terrain dries up with the arrival of spring.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says Russian forces have stepped up artillery and drone strikes, seeking to weaken Ukrainian defenses ahead of ground operations.
Ukraine has tried to disrupt those plans by launching counteroffensives in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions, where Russian forces are seeking to establish footholds with the aim of advancing on regional centers – key industrial hubs.
After an unpopular “partial mobilization” of 300,000 reservists at the beginning of the war, which led to a mass exodus of people from the country, the Russian military has changed tactics, relying on volunteers and foreign fighters attracted by relatively high salaries and benefits.
Putin has said that Russia has about 700,000 troops in Ukraine, about the same number as Ukraine, the AP reports.
