The past year has left a striking mark on the politics of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Numerous turmoils, elections, blockades and amendments marked the politics of the previous year.
Although the turbulent period is behind us, an even more exciting and uncertain period, judging by current indicators, will follow in 2023. These are just some of the events that await us.
Formation of the government in the Federation of BiH (FBiH) and at the state level
“I think it will turn out that the new state government and the government of the Federation, if it is established at all, is not based on a stable majority. I expect different crises regarding the basic operation of both. Of course, this implies that Dodik and Covic remain exactly the same reactionary characters as they were before and that their attempts to destroy the state of BiHwill remain the main causes of all major political events in society,“ noted political scientist Jasmin Mujanovic.
Schmidt and his position on the political scene
He also commented on whether the Constitutional Court of BiHwill overturn at least parts of the amendments to the Election Law of BiH and the FBiH Constitution.
“I expect that at some point the Constitutional Court will overturn large parts of Schmidt’s election law and that this will of course become a new impetus for new obstructions and blockades by the HDZ,” Mujanovic believes.
BiH’s path to the European Union (EU)
The realization of 14 priorities is expected, and this particularly relates to the fight against corruption and the improvement of the judiciary, two key segments on BiH’s path to the EU.
Unstable path to NATO
Borjana Kristo, as the coalition’s joint candidate for the BiH Council of Ministers, announced in her exposé that BiH is joining NATO, and on the other hand, the new and old Prime Minister of the Republika Srpska (RS), Radovan Viskovic, said in his exposé that BiH will not join NATO and that BiH remains neutral on that issue in in accordance with the decisions of the National Assembly of RS (NARS).
HDZ and SNSD relations
It remains to be seen how the relations between HDZ BiH and its partner SNSD will develop further, since Kristo comes from HDZ, and in her first public appearance, she propagates something SNSD does not agree with. The question arises, is it a game for the public that was agreed at the meetings between Dragan Covic and Milorad Dodik?
Formation of the House of Peoples of the BiH Parliament
Apparently, Dodik got the fourth delegate in the House of Peoples of the BiH Parliamentary Assembly. How this will affect the functioning of the most important state institution will be seen in the following period.
In the announcement of the most important political events, it is impossible not to mention the allocation of ministerial positions. Some positions have already been agreed, and some are still pending.
The United States (U.S.) and the blacklist
After many high-profile and even key names of the political scene of BiH were on the U.S. blacklist, in the coming period we will see how and if the U.S. will cooperate with the people it put on it.
Projects in BiH
At the level of the Council of Ministers, it must be decided whether Serbian projects such as the new hydropower plant and the Airport in Trebinje will be given a chance in BiH. Dodik mentioned this as a condition for going into partnership with the Eight.
The future of the Eight
Eight’s crack from within is not an unrealistic story in 2023, because there are two candidates who are being mentioned as options for the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sabina Cudic and Dino Konakovic. Also, the latest announcement in which the NES and the Party for BiH announced their exit from the government formation process if Dodik does not stop attacking the state, could further complicate relations, Klix.ba reports.