Just a week ago, it seemed certain that Donald Trump would return to the White House after the November elections. However, after the United States (U.S.) President Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he would not run for re-election and instead endorsed 59-year-old Vice President Kamala Harris, the race has become exciting once again.
In addition to voters, donors, and politicians, people from the business world are closely watching developments and wondering what a Harris presidency might mean for the economy. Uncertainty is something companies dislike. Biden’s withdrawal has now removed some uncertainties, but not all.
‘America First’ and the Democrats
It is now certain that someone else will come to power in the U.S. next year. However, it is harder to determine how President Harris’s economic policy would differ from Biden’s.
“Harris is generally more progressive than Biden, but I don’t think she would differ significantly when it comes to the economy,” said Dan Mallinson, a professor at the Pennsylvania State University in Harrisburg. “Both are worker-friendly. Both support the expansion of parental leave. Both support measures such as Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security.”
For entrepreneurs and managers, the question at this point is less about what Kamala Harris and the Democrats stand for – after all, a significant departure from previous years is unlikely. They are more interested in which aspects of Trump’s policy would be prevented by a Kamala Harris victory.
One of Trump’s biggest goals is to restore his “America First” agenda. In addition to strengthening external borders and restricting migration, this includes increasing tariffs by ten percent on all goods imported into the U.S. Trump has even announced a 60 percent tariff on imports from China.
Trump’s planned comprehensive tariff increase on all goods from all countries would, on the other hand, limit competition and raise prices for U.S. citizens. The result would be continued inflation and high interest rates.
This prospect – as well as the fear of a global trade war – worries U.S. employers. Harris’s nomination is calming to managers – and this could give the Democrats new momentum.
What would Harris’s economic policy look like?
Kamala Harris has so far spoken little about the economy and her economic agenda. However, something can be inferred from her time as California Attorney General and senator, and the past three and a half years as Vice President of the U.S.
As Attorney General, she opposed the excessive influence of oil companies and banks. As Vice President, she supported Biden’s economic stimulus programs. This includes the expansion of green energy, the “American Rescue Plan” launched after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the “Inflation Reduction Act.” She also supported the “CHIPS and Science Act,” which allocates billions for domestic semiconductor production. Additionally, Harris – like Biden – has spoken out against blanket tariff implementation but does not fundamentally reject specific tariffs against China.
