It is more than certain that the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) will not get a new House of Peoples until December 2nd, when all the 30-day deadlines for the constitution of government at all levels in BiH expire.
So, the cantons in the FBiH are not even close to completing the process of electing delegates to the House of Peoples of the FBiH Parliament. Although the House of Peoples of the FBiH Parliament should be the upper house, i.e. the legislative body that represents the peoples of BiH – Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, as well as other political parties in the cantons, they are calculating how to get as many delegates as possible in the people’s caucuses, and thus ensuring the majority for the election of the executive power in the FBiH.
The biggest fight is going on for the Bosniak People’s Caucus of the House of Peoples of the FBiH Parliament, in order to ensure that they have at least 12 of the 23 delegates for majority, as per the amendments to the Election Law of BiH, i.e. the amendments to the Constitution of FBiH imposed by the high representative for BiH Christian Schmidt.
In accordance with that, the fight for every vote, that is, representatives, is going on in the cantons in order to win one more seat in the House of Peoples of the FBiH Parliament.
The struggle is also within the Croatian People’s Caucus, while it is still not clear whether in the entire FBiH, that is, in all ten cantons, all 23 delegates from the Serbian people will be able to be elected to the Caucus of that People in the House of Peoples of the FBiH Parliament.
It remains to be seen how, or whether redistribution by cantons will be necessary for the election of 11 delegates from the category of Others to the House of Peoples of the FBiH Parliament.
Namely, according to the amendments to the BiH Electoral Law, i.e. the amendments to the FBiH Constitution by the High Representative in BiH, Christian Schmidt, the House of Peoples of the BiH Parliament has a total of 80 delegates/emissaries, i.e. 23 each in the caucuses of Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, and 11 from the category of Others.
And the struggle for the majority in the caucuses of the peoples, especially the Bosniak and Croat peoples, continues not only because of the executive power in FBiH, but also because the caucuses of those two peoples elect five delegates each to the House of Peoples of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH(PABiH) to the Bosniak Caucus and the Croat People’s Caucus.
The formation of a majority at the level of the House of Peoples of the PABiH also depends on the ratio of these forces, that is, who will have at least three delegates each, which can greatly affect the establishment of a parliamentary majority at the level of institutions of BiH.
It can be concluded that in the end, the House of Peoples of the FBiH Parliament will not be established so soon. This is primarily due to the fact that after the candidacy lists for the election of cantonal delegates to the House of Peoples of the FBiH Parliament are verified, the cantonal assemblies should hold a secret vote on them, after which, if everything is appropriate, the Central Election Commission (CEC) of BiH determines the results of the election for the election of delegates to House of Peoples of the FBiH Parliament.
And, only when the House of Peoples of the FBiH Parliament is constituted, the procedure for electing the president and vice president of the FBiH can begin, who, again, only when they are elected, propose a new representative for the composition of the new federal government.
Therefore, it is quite clear that the announced deadlines for the establishment of government within 30 days according to the provisions of the high representative in BiH are only those written on paper.