“As (Vladimir) Putin denied Russia’s intention to attack Ukraine, the President of Serbia today denied accusations of a new conflict brewing in the Balkans,” said analyst Ivana Stradner on April 20th, warning not to underestimate Serbia’s “deception” and its role in Russia’s interests to provoke conflict in the Balkans to divert attention from Ukraine.
Stradner, a contributor to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, commented on a statement made by Aleksandar Vucic on April 20th after meeting with the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs at the United States (U.S.) State Department, James O’Brien, on the social network X.
“We agree that it is very important to preserve peace and stability, and from the Serbian side, I promised that Serbia will behave responsibly and seriously, and I said what kind of lies are coming from those who talk about some kind of invasion, war because we have no intention of participating in such things,” Vucic told reporters.
Stradner emphasizes: “He said the same last spring when his people wounded 90 NATO peacekeepers in Kosovo.”
“The first round was in 2023. The second round will be in 2024,” she predicts.
She points out that U.S. intelligence predicts a new escalation in the Balkans, specifically in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Kosovo, this year, and notes that “while Serbia is initiating events on the ground, Moscow is fueling the fire.”
Stradner states that Serbia “does not need to send tanks and planes” because “special forces,” referring to paramilitary groups, will achieve the goals of that country.
“Serbia and Russia are already positioning themselves in the information space,” she warns, citing an increase in the number of Telegram channels with “war-mongering messages” as an example.
“The West is finally waking up”
Stradner notes that the West is “finally waking up to the threat,” and that many countries have sent more peacekeepers to Kosovo, sending a clear message that they will intervene if the President of the BiH entity of Republika Srpska (RS), Milorad Dodik, declares secession.
She further states that Serbia’s intelligence service has spent “huge resources” in the West to convince policymakers that Vucic is a pro-Western politician who “only uses nationalism for domestic purposes” and that he is a victim of Russian influence, but that he is ultimately only interested in economic cooperation.
“This is complete nonsense because Belgrade is a key Russian partner in the Balkans. Never underestimate Serbian deception as part of its national security,” Stradner notes.
“As Russia seeks to turn its war in Ukraine, the Kremlin would undoubtedly like to divert Western attention by opening a second front in the Balkans. Putin and Vucic want to show that their will to challenge the West is greater than the West’s will to resist. It is time to prove that Moscow is wrong,” she concludes, N1 writes.
E.Dz.
