The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) estimates that inflationary pressures are weakening, but that economic activity in the first half of 2023 continues to slow growth, it was announced in the new publication “CBBH Quick Estimates for 2Q 2023”.
The CBBH expects a weakening of inflationary pressures by the end of the third quarter of 2023, and the current estimate of total inflation for the first half of the year is 9.7 percent, and for nine months 8.1 percent.
“We expect that core inflation reached its peak at the beginning of the second quarter, but that the most significant inflationary pressures in the projection period come from the domestic economy. Our current estimate of core inflation for the first half of the year is 6 percent, and 5.6 percent for the nine months. We still expect a slowdown in real GDP growth in the first half of 2023, but not a recession. The preliminary assessment of real GDP growth for the first half of the year amounts to 1.1 percent,” says the CBBH publication.
As stated, the currently prevailing moderate risks for quick estimates are such that there is a probability of an upward correction of the inflation estimate in the coming periods, and a downward correction of the real GDP growth.
