Economic outlook 2012-2015 is a document that provides an overview of the most important predictions of economic developments in BiH. Directorate for Economic Planning (DEP) BiH prepared this document based on changes in economic trends in BiH and taking into account the international factors affecting the economic development of BiH.
This document was made for the Council of Ministers of BiH and is based on official data of statistical agencies in BiH.
DEP also made an assessment of economic developments BiH in the next three years, provided the region and EU recover, by announcing the slow reconstruction of the BiH economy and general economic trends.
According to these allegations, this projection for the EU points to the expectation of a very slow and only a gradual recovery from the debt crisis, which directly reflects the growth in BiH.
But despite everything, even mild optimism should favourably affect the expected reversal of negative trends in BiH from the previous year reflected in the modest growth of export and cash inflows from abroad.
According to the analysis: ”These trends should strengthen the income of the population, through foreign inflows or through increased employment. In addition, we expect a modest investment growth of 6.6 percent that could together with the expected increase in final consumption of 0.9 percent lead to modest growth of BiH imports.”
According to these projections, BiH will have growth in exports of 4.6 percent and imports by 3.6 percent but despite the higher growth of exports, the deficit should still grow by 2 percent due to a much greater disparity imports
Similarly, the projections for the period 2014 – 2015 were made with the assumption of continuing recovery from the debt crisis in the EU and the region.
It is estimated that BiH economy after 2013 will start growing because of further strengthening of exports.
The Expected growth of industry and other activities in the real sector should lead to a gradual increase in employment in BiH, and thus the consumption will increase, thus the expected growth of consumption will be 2.9% in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015.
This would, in addition to real investment growth of about 8 percent in 2014 and 10 percent in 2015, lead to real growth in BiH imports from 7 to 7.5 percent, with a further increase in the trade deficit, and the overall economic growth of 3.4 percent in 2014.
But despite everything, external factors largely dictate pace of economic growth in BiH, and the economic growth of the EU is the most significant.