Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik is taking provocative steps to neutralize international surveillance in Bosnia and Herzegovina and ensure de facto secession for Republika Srpska, according to the US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment, a public document prepared annually by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
“The annual threat assessment of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in relation to the Western Balkans and Bosnia and Herzegovina is clear and unambiguous,” announced the US Embassy in X.
The report emphasizes that Dodik’s moves could encourage Bosniak leaders to strengthen their ability to protect their interests, which could eventually lead to violent conflicts that could exceed the capacity of peacekeeping forces.
The annual U.S. Intelligence Community Threat Assessment reflects the collective knowledge of the U.S. intelligence community and focuses on the most immediate and serious threats to the United States, mostly during the current year. One of the categories of threats is potential internal insecurity.
The Western Balkans section of the report states that the region is likely to face an increased risk of localized inter-ethnic violence during 2024.
Nationalist leaders are likely to exacerbate tensions to gain political advantage, and external actors will reinforce and exploit ethnic differences to increase or protect their regional influence or thwart stronger integration of the Balkans into the EU or Euro-Atlantic institutions, the report said.
