The escalation of the war in the Middle East is also causing reactions in financial markets, which will affect the lives of people around the world. The price of oil and gas is constantly changing, in response to geopolitical circumstances, and fears are growing of further increases in the prices of energy and other products due to increased energy costs. We asked analysts and oil workers how much could the prices of energy and other products increase if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, as it has announced?!
While the conflict between Israel and Iran continues, there is growing concern that it could seriously disrupt the oil and gas market, considering that Iran is one of the largest oil producers among OPEC countries, and its importance on the world trade route, mainly due to the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, fuel prices at the pumps in the Federation have also started to rise, so in the last two days alone, the Federal Ministry of Trade has received 406 notifications of changes in prices and margins.
Truth be told, the price of diesel and gasoline is still 15 to 25 pfennigs per liter lower than at the beginning of the year, but there is growing concern that prices could very quickly return to those of January, when the price of gasoline was on average two marks and 45 pfennigs, and diesel two and a half marks.
But experts warn that there are no objective reasons, at least for the current price increases.
“There was no interruption in supply or reduction in the amount of available oil and fuel, so it is more a matter of psychological perception and expectation, and one can safely say that when it comes to prices at the pumps, there are also abuses,” warns economic analyst Igor Gavran.
“There is no foothold! This is the economy. You can raise the price without asking anyone and no one asks you why you raised the price,” says economic analyst Zoran Pavlović.
Crude oil prices on the market rose today, so the average price of American crude oil was around 73, and Brent oil was more than 74 dollars per barrel. Compared to yesterday, this is an average increase of almost two percent.
However, our interlocutors explain that this more expensive oil has yet to reach European refineries, and that this cannot be the basis for the current increases.
“The moment new crude oil arrives at the refinery with a new price, there will also be new prices for processed products, in this case gasoline and diesel. By the time these goods reach retail and wholesale distributors in Bosnia and Herzegovina at a higher price, it will take a month,” explains Pavlović.
“In the past weeks, and even months, we have had a situation of relatively lower fuel prices that have not had a positive impact on prices – almost no one has made anything cheaper because their transportation costs have been reduced. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, it is common practice that when prices go down, nothing gets cheaper, and when fuel prices go up, everything gets more expensive,” points out Gavran.
We intended to check with the Federation and RS Association of Oil and Petroleum Products Transporters what the reasons for the higher fuel prices are. However, they were not available for statements, we were only briefly told that the market had calmed down, that they were monitoring the situation, and that more details would be known in the following days.
