From tomorrow, Ukraine and Moldova could be one step closer to the European Union. After the adoption of the negotiation framework, these countries will officially open negotiations for membership. Bosnia and Herzegovina is in the same group, but it is still far from a new turning point on the European road. Due to the months-long blockade of state institutions and the unstable ruling coalition, none of the conditions have been met.
From March to June, Bosnia and Herzegovina did not make a single step towards the European Union. It did not reach the negotiation framework. From euphoria, expectations and promises, the European Union has been replaced by a blockade in Bosnia and Herzegovina. And, the wide open door of the Union, neglected. Well, instead of results, let’s count the consequences. Although it shared the status and group with Ukraine and Moldova, BiH is significantly late, so it will miss this opportunity to formally open negotiations.
“BiH was expected to continue reforms, adopt the Law on the Courts of BiH, adopt the new Law on the HJPC, and of course not go into regression anymore when it comes to media freedom, freedom of the non-governmental sector, which is was one of the conditions, actually, according to the RS authorities. Unfortunately, that did not happen,” explains Adnan Ćerimagić, an analyst at the European Initiative for Stability.
It didn’t happen because the state coalition couldn’t agree on the aforementioned laws even before, and after the high representative imposed technical changes to the Election Law, the agreement is an almost impossible mission. The coalition officially exists, but it is not functioning. The Law on the Court was suspended due to SNSD’s requirement that the seat of the Appellate Division of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina be exclusively in Banja Luka. The Law on the HJPC did not make it onto the agenda either, and the one originally adopted was not implemented due to the blockade of institutions which, even at the end of the sixth month, are without a budget and on temporary funding. The processes in the country do not reflect commitment to the European Union.
“What I’m afraid of is that from tomorrow, that is, this week’s opportunity, we will wait for the next such convenient opportunity, because in addition to the fact that the EU has entered this cycle of elections for EU leaders and the new EC. Also, we have elections in France that can fundamentally change not only relations in France but also relations in the EU”, adds Ćerimagić.
“BiH needs the EU. We also need a pact for growth and in that sense it is necessary, indeed, I would say especially, as regards certain cantons in the Federation who are now expressing their skepticism and showing that the coordination mechanism we talked about is not working, is that also interesting? it happens with majority Bosniak cantons. That these are exactly the things that show that there is no clear understanding of how serious the geopolitical moment we are in is,” believes Adnan Huskić, a political analyst.
One missed opportunity will not mean the complete collapse of BiH’s European path. When BH leaders schedule and halt reforms, along with geopolitics, a strong lobby within the European Union also operates. Hungary will take over the presidency of the Union next month. The country that hindered the adoption of the negotiation framework of Ukraine could be a friendly hand to Bosnia and Herzegovina and make up for what was missed.
“Hungary has an interest in trying to bring Bosnia and Herzegovina to the same level as Ukraine and Moldova within those six months. This is a very specific goal that the Hungarian administration has set before itself, especially considering the very specific ties that Hungary has, especially with the authorities in the RS, which could really get a certain kind of result,” added Huskić.
But even for help, results are needed. The minimum that the European Union expects. Continuation of judicial reform, and before that the adoption of the budget as the key to unblocking. Everything will once again be before the coalition partners next week at a joint meeting in Mostar, where the optimistic HDZ BiH will meet the blackmailing SNSD and the powerless Troika. They can choose between an agreement or the familiar wait for the European Union to see through their fingers again.
