One disturbing lesson from history is that global wars affect everyone, but the responsibility to prevent them falls on a few. Those individuals, as The Economist warned, are sometimes simply fools.
Today’s world resembles the period before 1914, according to Odd Arne Westad, a History Professor at Yale. Global powers are seeking dominance in their own regions, the era of globalization is giving way to rising nationalism, and an increasing number of people blame other countries for their problems. Mutual distrust is now even worse than it was before the First World War. Two out of five Americans believe their country will go to war with China in the next five years. Two-thirds of Russians believe the war in Ukraine is a “civilizational conflict” with the West.
In 1914, some leaders were ready for combat and overly confident. For example, Kaiser Wilhelm II, who was urged by his advisors to show restraint when his friend Franz Ferdinand was killed by a Bosnian Serb. Instead, the Kaiser angrily declared that Serbia was a sponsor of terrorism that should be “taken down – very soon.” Austria-Hungary, convinced of Germany’s support, started a war against Serbia without clear objectives.
The Kaiser believed that a short, fierce war would reshape the Balkans to his advantage, doubting that other powers would intervene. He failed to anticipate the predictable consequences of his actions, much less a conflict that claimed tens of millions of lives and destroyed four empires, including his own.
Misjudgment in High Places
It is difficult today to argue that our leaders are better. Vladimir Putin thought he could conquer Ukraine in a few days, but four years later, more Russians have died in his “vanity war” than in all wars since 1945. Donald Trump believed war with Iran would be easy, but it shook the global economy and does not appear to have made America a safer place.
The recent global resurgence of nationalism also echoes the era before 1914. The movement that swept through Germany then combined belief in national virtues with worship of the state and a cult of military power, reminiscent of modern China and Russia. Nationalism is explosively mixed with fear. America and China today resemble the old global powers and Germany rising at the beginning of the 20th century.
The Psychology of the Powerful and Technological Pressure
Peter Apps pointed out the unusual traits of leaders with the largest nuclear arsenals. Putin, isolated in his bunker, cites Viking commanders from the 9th century to justify his claim to rule Ukraine. Xi Jinping is determined to reverse China’s “century of humiliation.” As for Mr. Trump, few leaders are so dangerously unaware of their own ignorance – at 38, as a real estate agent, he believed he could learn most things about missiles in an hour and a half.
Preventing conflict depends on calm judgment by such individuals. Technological advancements force them to make decisions rapidly. In 1914, railways reduced the time available for diplomacy to a minimum; today, nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence have shortened that window from weeks to minutes.
Personalized rule presents an additional challenge. Putin, Trump, Xi, and Kim Jong Un foster personality cults, and such leaders fear being seen as weak more than the consequences of war. Westad offers advice for avoiding catastrophe: leaders must have secure means of communication and meet regularly. The great powers should cooperate on climate and pandemics, and seek temporary compromises on urgent sovereignty issues, such as Taiwan.
What are the Chances?
All these ideas depend on leadership. Wise leaders know how to prevent conflict and avoid uncontrolled escalation. Apps estimate the chances of a new world war in the next decade at 30–35%. It may sound grim, but as 1914 showed, small wars can very easily become big ones.
