Changes in international relations will certainly affect small countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) or the Western Balkans region. The key to peace and stability is in the hands of domestic actors, but it is good that there are also international guarantees. Will those guarantees remain in the hands of the United States (U.S.), NATO, the European Union (EU), or some third party?
It is concerning that, under pressure from Donald Trump, the order that has existed in Europe for more than 80 years is disappearing. The effects will also be felt by small countries that are not at the center of global shifts, says Professor Aleksandar Savanovic. In the context of the current crisis in BiH, he considers it good for everyone that NATO is seen as a guarantor of peace. In the event of changes in the U.S. stance toward the Alliance, a natural alternative, he believes, presents itself.
“The EU can and will, I think that is the most logical thing. BiH is part of Europe and certainly represents much more of a European responsibility than a U.S. one. Whatever the U.S. position on NATO may be – whether they leave or reduce their involvement – some form of European security for BiH is certainly both natural and necessary,” said Aleksandar Savanovic, professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Banja Luka (UNIBL).
It is certain that Trump likes to be in command and does not like being contradicted, but it is still unknown what he intends to do with BiH, says a foreign policy commentator from Belgrade, Bosko Jaksic. He believes that the position of U.S. Secretary of State Rubio on the crisis in our country is a message to Dodik, but also to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.
“That duo is in for unpleasant surprises, and above all, I think that regardless of Trump’s disregard for the EU, he still values NATO, and I believe that neither Vucic nor Dodik will be able to openly oppose Serbia and BiH joining the Western military alliance,” said Bosko Jaksic, foreign policy commentator.
Sarajevo professor Armin Krzalic believes that the key is in the hands of domestic actors. In the context of clear messages sent from important global addresses about the need to preserve the sovereignty and territorial integrity of BiH, the crucial factor is a shift in the mindset of domestic politicians.
“They must open their minds, talk, and find a common solution because the mind is like a parachute – if you don’t open it, it’s useless. If they don’t talk and don’t find solutions to existing problems – and those solutions should come from domestic authorities – I think we will always have crisis situations like this,” said Armin Krzalic, professor at the Faculty of Criminalistics, Criminology, and Security Studies at the University of Sarajevo (UNSA).
Savanovic, Jaksic, and Krzalic, aside from the U.S. or Europe, do not see a third party that could take on primary influence in the Western Balkans. A more serious international intervention in BiH, they believe, depends on the ability of domestic institutions to handle one of the biggest political crises in the country since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement.
