On January 9, the World Bank released a report on global economic growth for the year of 2018 and it includes growth estimates for each country individually. The economic growth of 3.2 % is estimated for BiH in 2018, and 3.4 % in 2019.
According to the projections of the Directorate for Economic Planning of BiH, the economic activity of BiH in 2018, in comparison to the previous one, projected a higher real rate of 3.6 %.
The report states that the basic assumption of projected growth in BiH refers to economic developments in the environment, especially when it comes to changes in export demand as well as foreign financing of final consumption and investments.
The aforementioned increase in export demand, with a slight improvement in the business environment primarily in 2018, should result in real exports growth by 5.3 % in 2017 and 5.6 % in 2018.
This would primarily mean an increase in the industrial production, but also in other branches that are closely related to exports, which could lead to an annual increase in the number of employees of about 2 % in the period 2017-18, and an increase in real salaries of a maximum of 1 %.
However, due to the arrangement with IMF and limited growth of revenues, public spending should be limited to a modest real growth of 0.5-0.8 %.
Based on the analysis of macroeconomic trends in BiH in the previous period, as well as on the basis of the analysis of the effect of key internal and external factors on which the development depends, it is predicted that the real GDP growth rate in 2018 will amount to 3.6 % and 3,8 % in the year of 2019 and 4.1 % in 2020.
(Source: akta.ba)
