The Central Bank of BiH (CBBH) expects that annual inflation will slow down significantly by the end of the year, and that inflationary pressures will continue to weaken in the first quarter of 2024.
“The somewhat lower currently estimated rate of total inflation for 2023 (6.1 percent), compared to the one published with the autumn round of medium-term macroeconomic projections (6.3 percent), is largely a consequence of the continuation of the trend of an unexpectedly rapid slowdown in inflation compared to previous months”, the CBBH pointed out.
According to CBBH estimates, total inflation could amount to 2.1 percent, and core inflation to 4.6 percent in the last quarter of this year. The preliminary estimate of total inflation for the first quarter of 2024 is two percent, and core inflation is 4.4 percent.
The CBBH states that expectations regarding economic activity have not changed significantly since the September round of rapid gross domestic product (GDP) estimates.
“The annual growth rate of real GDP for the third quarter was revised upwards by 0.6 percentage points to 1.5 percent, partly due to a correction in official historical data. Our preliminary estimate of the strength of economic activity in the last quarter is 1.4 percent on an annual basis “, it was noted from the CBBH.
According to the mid-term projection of the macroeconomic model in BiH from November, they added, the expected growth of real GDP in 2023 is 1.6 percent, which is very much in line with the current results of the model for quick assessments of current economic activity.
