In the annual report on threat assessments published by the intelligence community of the United States (U.S.), one part of the document also talks about security threats in the Balkans. The report was prepared by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
“The Western Balkans are likely to face an increased risk of localized inter-ethnic violence during 2024. Nationalist leaders are likely to exacerbate tensions due to their political advantage and external actors, strengthen and use ethnic differences to increase or protect their regional influence or thwart larger the integration of the Balkans into the European Union (EU) or the Euro-Atlantic institutions”, it is stated in the part where the Western Balkans are discussed.
Specifically, when it comes to our country, the U.S. intelligence data in the “Potential intrastate turmoil” section talks about worrisome actions in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) undertaken by the president of the Republika Srpska (RS) entity Milorad Dodik, which could lead to conflict.
“Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is taking provocative steps to neutralize the international community and surveillance in Bosnia and ensure de facto secession for his RS. His actions could encourage the leaders of the Bosniak (Bosnian-Muslim) population to strengthen their own capacities and protect their interests and thus eventually leading to violent conflicts that could overwhelm the force’s peacekeeping missions,” the published document reads.
Basically, this means that Dodik could start secession in 2024 and that there could be a conflict if Bosniak politicians try to stop him from doing so.
By “overwhelming peacekeeping forces”, U.S. intelligence officials believe that EUFOR forces would clearly not be strong enough to prevent an escalation at that point.
Referring to the “Intrastate turmoil”, the report explains that it applies regardless of whether it is based on domestic unrest, economic discontent or governance challenges and can fuel cycles of violence, insurgency, and internal conflict.
“The challenges are often intertwined with reduced socioeconomic performance, endemic corruption, population displacement, pressures from climate change and the spread of extremist ideologies from terrorist and insurgent groups.”, Klix.ba writes.
E.Dz.
