The political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), and especially in the Federation of BiH (FBiH), never ends. A new maze is ahead of us after the ”Eight” failed to get the required 11 delegates in the Bosniak Caucus of the FBiH House of Peoples, because the SDA candidate was chosen by lot.
This means that until the election of a new government, we will probably have a new crisis, new mutual accusations by two opposing political blocs (the ”Eight” on the one side and the SDA/DF on the other). Because in order for a party or coalition to be able to propose its candidate for president/vice president of FBiH in an ethnic caucus, it needs to have a minimum of 11 delegates.
And regardless of the agreed coalition of the ”Eight” and HDZ and the majority they have in the House of Representatives, a problem could arise if the possibly elected vice president delegated by SDA/DF does not sign the appointment of a new government. And given that the SDA did not give up power, it is difficult to expect that they will agree to sign a government that will not include that party.
What does that tell us?
When High Representative Christian Schmidt imposed changes to the Constitution of FBiH and the electoral law on the night of the election, it was announced that the process was finally unblocked and that no one would be able to block the new government. However, the situation on the ground says that Schmidt only unblocked the election of the president/vice president of FBiH with his decisions, because he set deadlines for proposing candidates. So if someone were to ignore it and not propose a candidate, after a month the number of delegates needed to propose would decrease.
But, Schmidt did not unblock the formation of a new government, because the law stipulates that in order for a government to be formed, consent must be given by the president and two vice-presidents of FBiH.
Likely and less likely scenarios
A less likely scenario is that the SDA/DF vice-president, if elected, will sign the government of the ”Eight” and HDZ. The ”Eight” is asking to be supported by at least a DF delegate under the pretext that SDP also supported DF’s Milan Dunovic in 2015.
However, the first reactions from the DF say that this supportwill not happen, and the reason could be in the decision of the ”Eight” to go to power in the Zenica-Doboj canton with the HDZ, after the DF initially agreed on a coalition with the parties of the ”Eight”, but without HDZ.
Another scenario is that the SDA/DF vice-president ignores the giving of approval of the government. In that case, the crisis deepens, and nervousness among political opponents grows.
In that situation, the high representative will also be nervous because it will be shown that he did not fully unblock all processes, and he could have expected during the imposition onOctober 2nd that such a situation might occur.
And the third scenario is that the parties of the ”Eight” ask for the high representative to get involved again and make some new decision. However, if he does that, it will open Pandora’s box and no future government will be safe and no one will be indispensable. This is a kind of risk for HDZ as well.
This also applies if Schmidt makes a decision on the so-called authentic interpretation of his imposed decisions and enters the field of additional impositions in order to somehow bypass the vice president from SDA/DF or conclude that only the president’s signature is needed to appoint a government. All this is a very politically sensitive field that would further complicate the role of the high representative.
In any case, the crisis heralded by the current events could once again bring Christian Schmidt into the public’s focus, Klix.ba reports.
E.Dz.
