Saturday’s attack by the Palestinian militarist group Hamas on the south of Israel, which caused numerous military and civilian casualties, opened up a series of questions on the regional security of the Middle East and the possible influence of Iran on the latest events.
United States (U.S.) Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a statement that followed Hamas’s military invasion into southern Israel, said that the Iranian regime was not involved in the latest events. At the same time, Tehran directly rejected such speculations.
“The accusations related to Iran’s role are based on political reasons. Talk about Iran’s role aims to distract public opinion (from the facts) and justify potential future actions (by Israel),” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said.
Military commentator Dean Dzebic said in an interview that Iran’s denial of participation in the Hamas operation is a logical answer, that is, plausible deniability.
“Iran’s responsibility is reflected in equipping Hamas with facilities for the production of kamikaze drones and unmanned aerial vehicles of limited capabilities. Finally, we saw a whole series of conventional weapons manufactured by Iran, which were used in the Hamas attack,” said Dzebic.
In addition, Dzebic emphasizes, that Iran directly manages the political and military wing of Hezbollah, which poses a threat to Israeli interests.
“Iran has three strategic goals in the Middle East: the survival of Hezbollah, the survival of the Assad regime in Syria, and the consolidation of the Houthis in Yemen. In this regard, Israeli interests significantly conflict with Iranian interests, especially in Syria, where there is open hostility between Hezbollah and Israel. This hostility is reflected in the exchange of fire in the border areas, but also in massive airstrikes in which the IAF enters Syria and without any approval from anyone other than Russia, acts according to Hezbollah’s goals,” Dzebic explained.
When asked whether the latest events could lead to the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran, Dzebic said that it is hard to imagine, but not impossible.
“A direct war between Iran and Israel is hard to imagine, but not impossible, finally the geographical distance of the two countries is a key parameter, but because of this, the conflict between these countries is conducted by proxy or asymmetric methods. Israel will continue to suppress Iran with special operations aimed at prolonging Iran’s nuclear proliferation,” Dzebic believes.
It is noticeable, points out Dzebic, that two days ago Hezbollah operated on the advanced radar hubs of the Israel Defense Forces(IDF), practically using the confusion and the general situation in which Israel found itself.
“This is significant because Israel uses its anti-ballistic shield in addition to its interception arsenal of endo and exo-atmospheric Arrow missiles, the David Sling system, and a wide network of elevating sensors and radars for early detection of ballistic and cruise missile launches. By destroying these early warning systems, it directly favors a potential first strike by Iran and Hezbollah, which, due to its configuration, can very successfully strike with a wide range of ballistic and cruise missiles,” Dzebic stated.
He believes that Israel undoubtedly intends to become a regional power. Although it hides its nuclear arsenal in one of the African countries, it still does not have the status of a regional power due to the impossibility of projecting power outside the region.
“Ultimately, this implies that it has dismantled nuclear forces like, for example, India,” Dzebic said.
At the moment, Dzebic claims, Israel is trying to seek peace in the Middle East through reconciliation with the Sunni majority country, while trying to continue the trend of the Camp David Agreement.
“In such an architecture of a complex security complex with fluid and unstable alliances, the strength of Israel directly depends on the Sunni-Shia detente. And this is actually the mission and strength of Iran, as a regional actor (not a force) to try to collapse any form of reconciliation with the existence of Israel,” concluded Dzebic, Klix.ba reports.
E.Dz.
