”The sanctions imposed by the United States (U.S.) on a person who has been leading the politics of the entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Republika Srpska (RS) for decades have failed in achieving their goal in several ways, and in order to change that, it is necessary to make a series of changes in the American approach to the policy of sanctioning those who destabilize BiH,” states Ajdin Muratovic, an associate of the Truman National Security Project in Washington, in his recent analysis.
At the beginning of the analysis, which was also shared on his blog by Johns Hopkins University professor Daniel Serwer, Muratovic explains what the targeted American sanctions should be for. It was stated that this “increasingly popular item in Washington’s toolkit for the Western Balkans” is intended to change the behavior of those who have been sanctioned and to deter future malicious behavior.
However, Muratovic points out that the sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Milorad Dodik for violating the peace agreement that ended the war in Bosnia do not achieve any goal, and the results of that failure “could be catastrophic.”
“Dodik only became braver and more extreme”
He states that Dodik, who has ruled the RS entity for decades, began his political career as a favorite of the U.S. State Department, and that over time he turned into someone who undermines the Dayton Peace Agreement “by creating illegal parallel institutions, confiscating property from the central government of BiH, ignoring orders of the BiH Constitutional Court and by obstructing policies that would improve the ability of the government in Sarajevo to function, and all with the promise of unification with Serbia”.
Lack of political insulation
Dodik is also finding allies on the international scene, and “has teamed up with European right-wing and pro-Russian politicians such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban in order to avoid potential European Union (EU) sanctions,” says Muratovic. He adds that Dodik also attended the recent presidential inauguration of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and is a frequent guest of Vladimir Putin.
“Nevertheless, American officials regularly meet with Dodik and act as if he is an actor of goodwill. Dodik responded to such American attention by doubling down on pro-Russian and secessionist policies. Such meetings only served to emphasize the irrelevance of the existing sanctions – which Dodik and the opposition are talking about. The sanctions were also financially insignificant. BiH politicians generally limit their assets and business to the EU and neighboring Balkan countries,” he writes.
Strategic irrelevance and tactical mistakes
“Washington’s assessment that Bosnia is not a priority has led to a simultaneous lack of consistent U.S. engagement and high-level political attention when it comes to the region. This includes the insufficient pressure of the U.S. on problematic actors such as Dodik”, he assesses.
Lack of multilateral support
He points out that there are no multilateral sanctions that would complement the American ones and that so far only Great Britain has joined the sanctions against Dodik.
Recommendations
Muratovic states that, although the failure of the U.S. to pay significant attention to BiH has put BiH in danger in terms of the security of the region, it is still not too late for the tactical adjustment of the sanctions policy. He points out that the limited goal should be “stopping Dodik’s attacks on the peace agreement”.
He believes that the U.S. should also sanction the “political initiators of Dodik’s secessionist agenda”, N1 reports.
E.Dz.
