Baroness Arminka Helić, a member of the House of Lords of the British Parliament, wrote that Viktor Orbán’s fall is good news, not only for the EU, but also for the Western Balkans, and especially for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
“For years, Orbán served as a key external patron to Milorad Dodik, a pro-Kremlin strongman from the Republika Srpska entity in Bosnia. Dodik’s project was consistent: to weaken Bosnia’s central institutions, render the state dysfunctional, and ultimately seek secession and unification with Serbia. His alignment with Moscow is no accident. It reflects a deliberate strategy of exploiting geopolitical divisions while avoiding legal and democratic constraints,” Helić said.
She added that this goes hand in hand with persistent historical revisionism, including denial of the Srebrenica genocide and the gradual collapse of post-war reconciliation among the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
“Hungary under Orbán provided political cover, diplomatic protection and material support, shielding Dodik from coordinated international pressure. Orbán’s departure removes one of the most significant external sponsors of that strategy,” she adds.
She points out that Bosnia remains one of the most fragile political systems in Europe.
“The Dayton Agreement ended the war, but it left Bosnia vulnerable to secessionism, which Dodik and his allies have repeatedly exploited – not only through rhetoric but also through continued efforts to weaken the legal and institutional foundations of the state. Hungary’s role has made it an exception within the EU, diluting common responses and signaling that secessionism can still find allies within the Union. Orbán’s fall therefore disrupts the network of support that has sustained destabilizing actors across the region. This dynamic is not limited to Central Europe,” Helić points out.
The UK, Helić adds, has taken a firm stance.
“In 2022, the British government imposed sanctions on Dodik and his associates, including travel bans and asset freezes, after it was concluded that he was actively undermining Bosnia’s constitutional order. These measures have been maintained. However, there are worrying developments in Britain itself. Two former British ambassadors are now registered under the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme as lobbyists for the Republika Srpska entity. Their aim is to ‘open and develop a new, discreet channel of communication’. In practice, such efforts risk giving the sanctioned leadership exactly what it wants: access, legitimacy and a gradual easing of political isolation,” Helić underlines.
She underlines that this is not a mere dialogue, but an attempt to recast the secessionist agenda into a negotiating political position.
“The engagement of former diplomats serves this purpose, softening Dodik’s image abroad without any change in his behavior. The timing is awkward. As the Rycroft Review makes clear: ‘Britain faces a persistent problem of foreign interests seeking to influence and interfere in our politics.’ In this context, any proposal to allow sanctioned actors indirect access to British political networks, to put it mildly, fits uncomfortably with the conclusions of the review and risks sending the wrong signal,” Helić says.
The United States, he adds, offers a cautionary example, and before the 2024 presidential election, Dodik tried to win over Donald Trump’s associates and hired lobbyists who presented his agenda as a defense of “Christian values” and a rejection of liberal internationalism.
“The strategy has proven effective. In October 2025, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Dodik, his family, and dozens of associates without public explanation or visible concessions. In doing so, Washington has strengthened the forces that Moscow has long supported in its efforts to weaken Dayton and destabilize Europe from within,” he points out.
Helić concludes that the lesson for Britain is clear.
“Prolonged lobbying in this context is not a sincere attempt at engagement, but a strategy of attrition of political resolve. Sanctions should impose real costs, not be diluted by informal approaches or elite advocacy. Weakening them would not be pragmatic. It would confirm a strategy based on obstruction and coercion, with consequences for a country whose stability has been hard-won,” Helić says, adding:
“Orbán’s departure creates a rare strategic space. The UK and its EU partners should use it to strengthen, not ease, pressure on those who would seek to dismantle the post-war order in Bosnia – in the interests of regional stability and broader European peace.”, Klix.ba writes.
