Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) was not much of a focus during the first term of the new United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump. Political analysts explained how and to what extent he will address our country and region in his second term.
The analysts agree on one thing: BiH, nor the region, will not captivate Trump’s attention, nor should any changes in relations be expected.
“U.S. policy towards the Western Balkans, and therefore towards BiH, will not drastically change regardless of whom they appoint as ambassador here. It is not in the U.S. interests to see conflicts in this area. And if they support the kind of dynamics we have here in BiH, it could only lead to conflicts,” said foreign policy analyst Haris Cutahija.
Political analyst Danijel Vidovic states that there will be no major changes in Trump’s second term compared to his first. He notes that the relationship between BiH and the U.S. has been consistent since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement.
“That relationship can only change in the context of larger global disruptions, in relation to European and transatlantic partnerships and Trump’s stance towards the European Union (EU), overlapping of those interests in Europe. But the traditional Southeast Europe remains within the U.S. sphere of interest,” Vidovic explains.
Trump envisions tectonic changes in U.S. policy, but those changes pertain to U.S. domestic policy. BiH is not on the map of the U.S.’s geostrategic interests, according to journalist Aleksandar Trifunovic.
“No one will deal with BiH in the way that is expected. We are left to ourselves. And perhaps this sobering realization with the new U.S. administration will be the best thing for us – to understand that we are not important and that we need to focus on solving our own problems,” Trifunovic states.
Milorad Dodik, however, faced sanctions at the start of Trump’s term, despite contrary expectations. Therefore, regardless of expectations, the sanctions against the President of Republika Srpska (RS) will not be lifted, says political analyst Davor Djenero.
“A unified, sustainable, functional, and sovereign BiH remains a priority and a value of U.S. policy. It will not be spoken about as loudly as during Biden’s time, but nothing significant will change. Why? Mr. Dodik talks about how golden times are beginning for him because drowning men always grab at straws and always try to present their position as better than it is,” Djenero opines.
Judging by the statements of these political analysts, U.S. President Donald Trump will not focus much on BiH in this term either, and a continuation of the same policy is to be expected.
