An agreed set of European laws, the announcement of the completion of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), mutual trust, and willingness to work. This is a summary of the meeting of partners in government at the state level. The anti-state policy of Milorad Dodik, although it offered a difficult meeting, in the announcements of the possibility of the collapse of the state coalition, ended up deflating. Nevertheless, you can never be too careful. Is this a true turnaround or a trade for new political moves?
Seemingly casual, empty-handed, and relaxed. Essentially, difficult and uncertain. With the capital of anti-state decisions and unconstitutional moves, Dodik arrived at the meeting with the coalition partners: “I didn’t come to condition anyone. If could choose, I would never have come here. I don’t believe in the European Union (EU) or in those intentions, they wash their conscience.”
Nermin Niksic stated that there is no alternative to talking.
“I think we are coming out of a period of great uproar, both media and political,” added Dodik.
This is how Dodik, after a three-hour meeting, went from “no negotiations” to “we are going to implement European laws”, at least that is what he said publicly. However, knowing his political habit, it is hard to believe that a turnaround has been made.
“What on the surface may look like a U-turn by Dodik – is only a tactical game because probably, firstly, he was promised that he would get some concessions or, secondly, someone from the outside told him that he can’t go any further because he will be sanctioned,” according to political analyst Ibrahim Prohic.
Academician Slavo Kukic points out that the one who expected Milorad Dodik to change is wrong: “He won’t change, but that doesn’t mean that we don’t need to talk. We need to talk, we need to persevere, but I think there is a red line that shouldn’t be crossed. We can stick to the wording that the High Representative annulled those laws, but there is a decision of the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska (NARS) both on the Constitutional Court and on the non-recognition of the high representative, and Dodik can refer to that decision whenever he wants.”
Nevertheless, after the meeting, the partners in the state government optimistically announce the next steps.
“We managed to harmonize a set of European laws that should go to the next session of the House of Representatives of the state parliament, and if it is adopted, I believe that a huge step forward has been made towards the candidate status of BiH”, Niksic said.
Dragan Covic pointed out that mutual trust means that we have a full convocation of the BiH Council of Ministers, which can work and pass new laws.
“In that period, we need to prepare and perhaps start procedures for filling certain structures and the Constitutional Court itself and other institutions as far as the judiciary is concerned. All this was agreed today and what I said, I stand behind it and I am ready to work on it,” said Dodik yesterday.
More confirmation that there is no essential turn in Dodik’s political career. The only constant is the lack of consistency, which means an alternating game of hot and cold, bringing the conflict to a boil, and then giving in when he gets or hopes to get what is in his interest.
“To say ‘maybe’ about the filling of the Constitutional Court is simply an implicit acknowledgment that this is part of his tactics that he seriously does not count on,” notes Kukic.
In this gap of political blackmail and ultimatums, the profitability of his policy, it turned out, is not absent. Such an atmosphere often produced the withdrawal of pro-Bosnian partners, thus further deepening the crisis. That is why the insistence of the Coalition of the Three parties on talks and agreements is the terrain on which Dodik does not do well. The main argument for this surely lies in the fact that European reforms are an urgent need of all citizens and an adequate mechanism for the protection of the state. Dodik’s anti-state moves were not approved by his long-term political partner Dragan Covic. To be precise, red lines exist, but the absence of dialogue brings more harm than good.
E.Dz.
