The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings has confirmed the credit rating of Bosnia and Herzegovina at level B+, with a stable outlook, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina announced.
According to S&P analysts, public finances in the coming period will be affected by the growth of pre-election expenditures, primarily for pensions and salaries in the public sector, which is why budget deficits at all levels are expected to grow by more than three percent of GDP this year.
Without additional fiscal consolidation measures, the public debt could gradually increase, but it still remains at a moderate level according to international standards.
The agency reduced the economic growth forecast for BiH to slightly more than two percent due to the negative consequences of global trends, especially higher energy and transport costs, as well as weaker demand on important export markets in the European Union.
Nevertheless, domestic consumption remains stable, supported by the growth of pensions, wages and social benefits that increased the disposable income of citizens.
S&P warns of challenges in industrial production, especially in the energy and processing sectors, as well as the possible consequences of the introduction of the European Carbon Emission Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which could affect part of BiH’s exports.
Analysts expect that the current account deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026 will amount to a moderate 3.8 percent of GDP, which is slightly more than in 2025.
The negative effects of weakening external demand for goods and higher energy import prices will be partially mitigated by the growth of service exports and a strong inflow of remittances from abroad.
The agency points out that the currency board implemented by the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is based on the fixed exchange rate of the convertible mark and the euro, continues to represent an important pillar of the country’s economic policy.
When it comes to European integration, S&P states that the lack of progress in reforms leads to a delay in the payment of funds from the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans.
At the same time, implementing the necessary economic reforms could help Bosnia and Herzegovina to improve economic growth and respond to key challenges.
Confirmation of the B+ rating, along with stable prospects, represents an assessment of the country’s current economic stability, while simultaneously indicating areas in which additional reforms are needed, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina stated.
