According to the latest results of voters turnout survey before the general elections next year, which was carried out by the renowned Ipsos agency, the best ratings have SDA and HDZ in the FBiH and SNSD in the RS.
According to the survey that is conducted by Ipsos for a longer period of time, that is, according to the latest research that was conducted in mid-September, the situation regarding the turnout to the elections and ratings of individual parties did not change.
The rating or the distribution of parties in the FBiH among the voters (30 % of respondents in the FBiH) was slightly changed in comparison to the same period last year. The SDA is still on the top of the list with 31 % of support, and it is followed by HDZ with 21 %, SDP with 14 %, Democratic Front with 11 %, SBB with 7 %, etc.
The difference in comparison to the same period last year is the decline of rating of the Democratic Front (18 % and the second position, September 2016) and the increase of rating of HDZ (16 % in September 2016).
Among the voters in the RS (32 % of respondents in the RS), SNSD has 53 % of support, SDS has 22 %, DNS has 8 %, PDP has 7 %, etc. When compared to the same period last year, the important difference is in the decline in the rating of the NDP (from 8 % to 3 %).
Similar to the FBiH, the analysis in the RS should be taken with the reserve because every third respondent does not want to declare who would get his vote, as announced by the agency.
The share of those who would go to polls is 44 % and it ranges between 40 and 45 % in the last two years. The share of voters is slightly lower in urban areas, and higher in regions such as Herzegovina-Neretva Canton, Canton Sarajevo, and the eastern RS, according to the latest research.
These data refer to two waves of research that were conducted in September 2016 and 2017, on a total sample of n = 1,000 respondents for each wave, who are representative for BiH for the general population of 18 years of age and older. Data was collected by the field survey – CAPI method.
In case when the survey is interpreted and published, it is necessary to publish methodological details of the research, and they are: sample size, data collection method and period of data collection, population to which the result of the research refers, or the target group. If there is no such data in the accompanying text, such research should not be trusted, as noted by this agency.
(Source: Semir Hambo/Klix.ba)
