It is no secret that Iran does not want an escalation of the conflict due to internal turmoil that could get out of control in the event of entering a wider war.
According to information from American sources, an attack on Israel can be expected from Monday. The Islamic Republic of Iran and members of the “Axis of Resistance”, which consists of the Palestinian militant movement Hamas, the Shiite movement Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias under Iranian control in Syria and Iraq, and the Yemeni Houthis, have reportedly reached an agreement and are now working on a political decision.
The spiral of violence started when a Hezbollah rocket killed 12 Druze children in the Israeli-occupied part of the Golan Heights at the end of July. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government used that crime to retaliate by killing first a high-ranking Hezbollah commander in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, and then carried out a spectacular liquidation in Tehran, where Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was killed.
Theocratic leadership
Iran’s theocratic leadership is once again embarrassed because it is confirmed that Israeli agents are prowling the capital, and that at the moment of the inauguration of the new president, while foreign guests are visiting. Foreign Policy had an interesting observation stating that one should not rule out support for Israeli action by a part of the Iranian population that is dissatisfied with the theocratic government, poor living conditions and protests, including the last one prompted by the death of a young Kurdish woman in the police who detained her because she did not wore a hair covering in accordance with religious rules.
Supreme religious leader Ali Khamenei, aware of the simmering discontent – banners often appear during the protests demanding the end of aid to the Palestinians and other members of the “Axis of Resistance” because large financial resources are spent on them – allowed Masoud Pezeshkian, a civilian, to win the presidential election, although it complicated the transfer of power when he died.
On Monday, Tehran issued a Pythian statement saying that “Iran seeks to establish stability in the region, but this will only come by punishing the aggressors and creating a deterrent against the adventurism of the Zionist regime [Israel],” Reuters reports, adding that action is inevitable.
The Iranian government is aware that it has to react to the murder of Haniyeh because any other scenario would call into question the strength of the regime, which is dangerous in the model of relations defined by force politics. The Soufan Center, a well-informed intelligence firm, wrote on Monday that the news “suggests an intention by Iran and the ‘Axis of Resistance’ to strategically burden the Israelis with a period of waiting and uncertainty.”
Anxiety in Israel
“This strategy aims to exploit anxiety within Israel, increasing pressure on its leadership,” they added. The intelligence firm claims that Iran and its allies see the recent Israeli attacks as an escalation to provoke a wider regional conflict on Israel’s terms. The goal is either to draw Iran into direct conflict with Israel, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes will also prompt the United States (U.S.) involvement, or to force Iran and its vassals to withdraw, re-establishing the regional deterrence Israel enjoyed before October 7th, when Hamas carried out a terrorist attack in the south of Israel.
It is no secret that Iran does not want an escalation of the conflict due to internal turmoil that could get out of control in the event of entering a wider war. The strategists in Tehran are aware that they cannot count on the support of their allies, Russia is bound by aggression against Ukraine, and the People’s Republic of China does not intend to interfere in any war and on anyone’s side. An open conflict with Israel, which is supported by the U.S., could also be fatal for the vassals, especially the strongest among them, Hezbollah, which would come under strong American blows. The weakening of Hezbollah, perhaps even to the level at which Hamas is now, would represent a decline in Iranian influence in strategically important Lebanon, which provides Tehran with access to the Mediterranean, and in Syria, where it supports the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
A halo of power
If it failed to defeat Israel, Iran would lose the aura of power and strength it now has in the region, and its existing Arab allies would probably turn their backs on it, and Saudi Arabia could take first place in the balance of power, especially if it forms an alliance with the U.S. and Israel. The Israeli government wants such an outcome, and it is believed that this is why Netanyahu initiated a series of liquidations, which at the same time pushed the ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip into the background, since there is now no one to negotiate on behalf of Hamas. The Palestinian militant movement is looking for a person to succeed Haniyeh, and reportedly it could be Khaled Mashaal, whom Israel has tried to kill once before.
The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is still working to negotiate a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip as a condition for Hezbollah and the Houthis to stop their attacks. The trouble is that such an outcome does not appeal to Netanyahu, who would certainly want a war until the American elections in the hope of winning Donald Trump, who, it is expected, would side with him. The Israeli Prime Minister forgets that Trump claims that he will not enter wars, but end them, if he wins, N1 writes.
E.Dz.
