”I believe that, in the end, the European Union (EU) and the United States (U.S.) will not allow such a development of the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) as announced, ” said Bodo Weber, a political analyst from the Council for the Democratization of Politics in Berlin, while commenting on Milorad Dodik’s announcements.
Bodo Weber, a political analyst from Berlin, thinks that both the U.S. and the EU will understand the seriousness of Milorad Dodik’s threats, and says of the possible scenario:
“We will see in the next few weeks whether President Vucic will take the situation seriously and make a turnaround and reason Dodik, is it a possible scenario, and whether Dodik will get away with keeping his honor, although at this moment it is difficult to imagine what it would be like without pressure? On the other hand, the U.S has announced that it will react harshlyand use all possibilities and impose sanctions. I believe that these important member states whose ambassadors did not travel to Istocno Sarajevo, members of the Quint, which is a kind of message, and those are Germany, France, Italy, and then the United Kingdom (UK), will certainly react. So, in the end, I think and hope that it does not matter which European countries and their diplomatic representatives were embarrassed to come to this famous meeting on Thursday, but that more significant members will make a final decision. I think that in the end the EU and the U.S. will not allow this kind of development that has been announced so far,” told Bodo Weber.
Speaking about the current political crisis in BiH, Bodo Weber emphasized that Dodik, after 15 years of threatening secession, started to move more seriously in that direction.
“I don’t know if he really planned to go so serious or if he went astray, but that’s what it looks like from Berlin and Western capitals. People and government representatives are worried,” stated Weber.
“It seems that now there is no moderate message towards Banja Luka from Belgrade either,” Weber said.
On the European future of BiH and the promises of European leaders from the recent meeting in Slovenia, Weber stressed that these are false promises and that for four years French President Emmanuel Macron has blocked the expansion of pre-accession talks for North Macedonia and Albania. the reputation of the enlargement policy towards the Western Balkans and the reputation of the EU and the whole perspective of EUmembership.
On the new High Representative (HR) Christian Schmidt and his recent neutral statements, Bodo Weber said that Angela Merkel has confused everyone in Berlin and Western capitals with his candidacy for the post of HR. Weber also mentioned that, despite the expectation that Schmidt will come to BiH with a clear plan, this is not the case, and that he did not come with clear ideas.
“When it comes to the decision of the National Assembly of Republika Srpska (NARS) that came this week, he must reach for the Bonn powers. Otherwise, he condemns himself at the beginning of his mandate for inaction and practically for the disappearance of his position, his institution, not physically, but essentially,” concluded Weber.