Holding a referendum in Greece on 5th July, whether voters decided not to support the aid program, could mean a definitive exit of Greece from the Eurozone. Such an outcome will surely have an impact to the whole EU, and especially to the countries members of the EMU.
Most analysts expect that such a scenario would mean a depreciation of EUR relative to USD, and other strong currencies such as CHF, GBP and JPY. Given that many processes related to the Greek bankruptcy are uncertain, as a legal framework of these processes is not known, it is impossible to evaluate all direct impacts to the economy and currency of EMU, and thereby the concrete effect that these processes could have on the economy of B&H, as well. In any case, such an outcome would significantly “shake“ the EU and EMU, and there is a question what consequences would it have on B&H.
In general, B&H should not have any bigger changes especially problems due to following:
-Greek banks do not operate in B&H, thus B&H does not have to expect any negative implications for the financial system in B&H, given that the bank sector in B&H is not exposed to Greek banks, and there will be no direct impact as it could be in the countries in region such as Macedonia, Albania and Bulgaria where Greek banks and companies are present, although officials of these countries already announced that they have taken the necessary steps in order to minimize these effects
-Greece is not a significant trade partner in B&H, and in that context, disturbances should not be expected.
-Status of a direct investments from Greece to B&H, according to the last available data, does not overcome 1.4 million BAM.
Exit of Greece from the EMU will have much more implications for EUR and the EU. Such a scenario increases the uncertainty in the EMU and it security and the credibility. Exit of one country from the EMU would mean that any other country, with a similar problem, could leave the monetary union.
EUR, as the current and stable currency, would be exposed to the pressures of a reduction, and in the case of Greece exiting the Eurozone, a depreciation of this currency could be expected. Given that the domestic value, BAM, is connected with EUR, a depreciation of EUR would mean the automatic weakening of BAM related to other currencies. However, these occasions should not have a significant impact on the economy of B&H, because the main trade partners of B&H are countries of the region that are adjusting their currency relative to ER, or are using EUR as a domestic currency.