Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths to one direct death reported in Gaza, a new study published in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet says it is “not implausible” to estimate that up to 186,000 or even more deaths could be attributed to the Gaza war.
The paper, titled “Counting the dead in Gaza: difficult but essential”, published on July 5th, said that using the Gaza Strip’s 2022 population estimate of 2,375,259, the estimated death toll would be 7.9 percent of the total population in the enclave’s besieged area.
On Sunday, the Palestinian Health Ministry said Israel had killed at least 38,153 Palestinians in Gaza since October 7th, while more than 87,828 were wounded in the besieged enclave. Of these, 15,983 are children.
A study by Rasha Khatib, Martin McKee and Salim Yusuf used data as of June 19th, with an official death toll of 37,396. Official records kept by the Gaza Ministry of Health do not include more than 10,000 people missing or buried under the rubble.
”The ministry had to expand its usual reporting, based on people dying in its hospitals or brought in dead, with information from reliable media sources and first responders. This change inevitably degraded previously recorded detailed data. As a result, the Gaza Ministry of Health now separately reports the number of unidentified bodies in the total number of deaths. As of May 10th, 2024, 30% of the 35,091 deaths were unidentified,” the paper noted.
It also pointed out that armed conflicts have “indirect health implications beyond the direct harm of violence”.
“Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will still be many indirect deaths from causes such as reproductive, communicable and non-communicable diseases in the coming months and years,” the paper said.
A report dated February 7th, 2024, at a time when the direct death toll was 28,000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58,260 deaths (without an outbreak or escalation) and 85,750 deaths (if both occur) by August 6th, 2024.
The interim measures imposed by the International Court of Justice in January require Israel to “take effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence relating to allegations of acts under the … Genocide Convention.”
“An immediate and urgent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is essential, accompanied by measures that will allow the distribution of medical supplies, food, clean water and other resources for basic human needs,” the magazine said.
E.Dz.
