In the years ahead, Bosnia and Herzegovina will face serious challenges regarding the sustainability of the pension and health system – said demographer Aleksandar Čavić.
From the last population census in 2013 to today, BiH has about 100,000 fewer inhabitants based only on the natural population movement. When it comes to migration, at least 25 thousand people leave our country every year, which is an optimistic estimate.
“Given that we do not have statistics on external migration, we obtain these data through Eurostat data on the number of immigrants to the countries of the European Union, then through data from diplomatic and consular missions of other countries in BiH, research by the non-governmental sector, etc. Estimates are different, but the most optimistic estimates say that 20-25 thousand inhabitants leave BiH on an annual basis. BiH, in the best case, has lost at least 250 thousand inhabitants in the last ten years,” explained Čavić.
Therefore, the demographer points out, the data on natural population movement and external migration show that in the last ten years BiH has lost at least 350 thousand inhabitants, and some estimates go up to half a million fewer inhabitants compared to the 2013 census.
Over 40 percent of the population is over 65 years old
Data from the UN Population Fund indicate that by 2070, the number of those living in BiH could drop to 1.56 million, or to 1.2 million according to pessimistic estimates. Čavić believes that these data are alarming, not only because of the number of the population, but also because of the structure of the population that will then be represented.
“As much as the number itself is worrying, the structure of those 1.2 or 1.5 million inhabitants is even more alarming, of which over 40 percent would be people older than 65. When it comes to the costs and organization of social and health care in the country, it will not be a sustainable system, and it will become unsustainable long before 2070,” he believes, pointing out that in the years ahead, the largest group of the population will enter the age of 65+, which is associated with the retirement age.
Precisely because of such data, it is important to regularly conduct the population census, which was last conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2013, that is, three years after the population census was conducted by most countries of the world. The census in Bosnia and Herzegovina was delayed due to political disagreements, and the main dispute was whether those living and working outside Bosnia and Herzegovina would also be counted.
“In countries that do not have other ways to monitor the number and structure of the population, a population census is certainly necessary. I expected that this census would be carried out as was the practice in the former Yugoslavia and in most countries around the world, i.e. that the census would be carried out first year of every decade”, according to demographer Čavić.
He adds that it is understandable that it could not be carried out because of the pandemic, but Čavić points out that even today there are no indications that the census will be held in the near future. There is, he says, a working version of the text of the Law on Population Census, but nothing more than that.
“In addition to continuous monitoring of population trends, the census is important in order to determine the number and the most significant structures of the population at a certain moment and to adjust the public policies that are implemented accordingly. We cannot implement any public policy if we do not know what number and what structures of the population we have, that is, to which number and structure of the population the public policy is applied,” he said.
Register of population and emigration
When and if the population census takes place, Čavić emphasizes that it should be the basis for the establishment of the Population Register, which would be regulated in accordance with the constitutional competences of that area.
“That Population Register should, in order to relieve some form of political abuse, contain two forms. The first would be a normal population census, and the second would refer to the emigration census due to the fact that we have a large population outside the country. Such data would be useful in planning certain activities,” he explained.
Additionally, he clarifies that BiH has reliable data on births and deaths, however, external migration statistics are based on registration and deregistration records and as such are represented by less than 5 percent.
“Such a methodology for monitoring external migration does not give reliable results and is therefore not published. There are enough technical conditions that can continuously help in monitoring external migration so that we always have up-to-date data on the number and basic structures of the population,” says demographer Aleksandar Čavić.
When will we take the population census?
Although it has been ten years since the last census, its implementation this year is questionable because no money has been allocated in the state budget, and before that a special law needs to be passed. From the Ministry of Finance and Treasury of Bosnia and Herzegovina, it was said that funds for the population census were not requested in the budget request.
The State Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina is responsible for the population census in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The BiH Statistics Agency formed a working group that drafted the text of the Law on Population Census and submitted it to the entity institutes for their opinion.
“All three statistical institutions (Statistics Agency of BiH, Federal Statistical Office of FBiH and Republic Statistical Office of RS) determined that the proposal of the Law on Population Census cannot be finalized without clearly defined key elements and other important details, such as the date of the start of the census, census issues, calculations, map of census circles, methodological and organizational documents, procurement of IT equipment, implementation of pilot census and other details, which aim to test the proposed solutions”, said Mirsada Adembegović, expert adviser for public relations of the BiH Agency for Statistics.
She added that in order to implement the mentioned activities, it is necessary to include other relevant state and entity institutions, in addition to statistical ones.
“Regarding the timing of the population census in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the BiH Agency for Statistics will act in accordance with Article 8 of the Law on Statistics of BiH, which states: “When the state authorities deem it necessary, the Agency will coordinate the planning, management and publication results of the population and household census of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in accordance with the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, including Annexes 7 and 10 of the Agreement,” Adembegović concluded.
This year, agriculture is being censused
The BiH Statistics Agency, in cooperation with the entity’s statistical institutes, is currently working on preparations for the Census of Agriculture, which is planned to be completed at the end of 2023.
“In October of last year, the Trial Census of Agriculture was successfully conducted with the aim of the statistical institutions checking the organization, methodology, technical solutions of the electronic questionnaire, the application for material control, the time required for briefing and enumeration of farms, with the aim of conducting the full census of agriculture as high-quality and more efficiently. Accordingly, the representatives of all three statistical institutions are analyzing the data and experiences gained from the trial census, which they will use in the activities related to the preparation of the full agricultural census,” said Adembegović.
The BiH Statistics Agency, in cooperation with the entity’s statistical institutes, has prepared a joint, agreed Information on the need to prepare, conduct and disseminate the results of the Census of Agriculture in BiH 2021-2024. and a proposal for a Decision on the formation of an Interdepartmental Working Group for the preparation of an Action Plan for the preparation, implementation and dissemination of the Census of Agriculture in BiH 2021-2024. and submitted them to the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In addition, the BiH Statistics Agency sent a request for expert assistance to the EU Delegation in BiH, which is in the process of approval.