Political theory is one thing, and practice is a completely different angle in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). However, although there is no money for the elections yet, election calculations, coalitions, and forecasts are being done a lot.
The HDZ did not support the allocation of money for the elections on the proposal of the Council of Ministers, and the organization of the elections is still on thin ice. No one believes in changes to the election law anymore, except perhaps the increasingly nervous and radical Zoran Milanovic, the president of Croatia who would play the blackmail card of the entire NATO alliance.
Very important technical changes to the election law that should increase the integrity of the election process and strengthen transparency are also not talked about. This has only become a by-product of some international factors.
Partnerships are being tailored
However, electoral partnerships are already being tailored, there are predicting results and scenarios, and some are already declaring victory.
The candidacy of Denis Becirovic (SDP) as a joint candidate of at least five parties in the race for the presidency from the Bosniak people will be officially announced today. In the line of support for the SDP candidate are the People and Justice (Narod i Pravda), Our Party (Nasa Stranka), SBB, NES, the mayor of Zenica Fuad Kasumovic, and probably the PDA.
It would be said that the situation for Becirovic is a sure thing. Due to such support, many already see this state delegate and the defeated candidate four years ago in the Presidency. All that remains is to hang the appropriate picture in the cabinet and change the furniture.
However, we should not lose sight of the fact that in addition to Bakir Izetbegovic (SDA), his opponent will be Mirsad Hadzikadic (Coalition ”Drzava”), but also someone from the Party for BiH. They all target predominantly Bosniak votes.
Position of Zeljko Komsic
This announced square of the elections is additionally spiced up by the announced candidacy of Zeljko Komsic, who, in the previous elections, clearly received the largest number out of 225.000 votes from citizens from the Bosniak spectrum. Here we come to interesting mathematics and combinatorics that some are already counting on.
Namely, in the media in Croatia, including the state news agency, calculations can already be read that the unification of the Bosniak opposition that will support Becirovic means that Izetbegovic will have to work much harder for himself and thus alert Bosniak voters to vote for him. It is estimated that this was not the case in previous cycles and that the wider candidacy for a member of the Bosniak Presidency meant that Komsic had more chances.
It is now assumed that Izetbegovic’s chances are diminished and that there will be many more who might otherwise vote for Komsic, and who will now consider how to proceed. In such a scenario, the Croatian bloc is already calculating that the chances of Dragan Covic or any other HDZ candidate would be increased.
Is the Presidency the most important thing
Thus, from the whole story about the election law and strong reforms, the point was again reached that the essence is who will be elected to the Presidency of BiH.
What is clear is that the Croatian bloc of parties will be quite homogeneous, in Republika Srpska (RS) there will be two large and essential blocs that will probably lead an equal fight. And in the end, we have the most scattered political activity in the Bosniak or pro-Bosnian spectrum, where after the elections, almost a dozen political entities will be waiting for their place in the eventual government.
Hypothetically, we can get the Federation of BiH (FBiH) Government, where the HDZ will have the most ministries in the government, and with them, there will be four or five or even more political entities if the current Trojka brings together all those who support Becirovic. Such a scenario is possible because supporting one candidate and giving up one’s candidate clearly has a price.
It is a special story about what state government will look like, Klix.ba writes.
E.Dz.
