Military analyst Hamza Višća said that NATO is currently in the process of profound transformation, primarily due to changes in the global security architecture, Russian aggression against Ukraine and changes in American priorities towards China.
“NATO is the winner of the Cold War. It is a political-military alliance that defeated the Warsaw Pact without firing a shot and later integrated a large number of Eastern European countries,” said Višća.
He assessed that NATO’s biggest mistake after the fall of the Berlin Wall was neglecting the Alliance’s basic function.
“NATO members have stopped investing in deterrence and defense, and have shifted their focus to missions outside the Alliance’s territory, such as Afghanistan, Iraq or Bosnia and Herzegovina,” he said.
He added that the Russian invasion of Ukraine showed serious weaknesses. “The aggression against Ukraine raised the question of whether European countries can really defend themselves. They realized that they cannot do enough,” he said.
Speaking about defense investments, he emphasized that the demand for increased allocations is not new. “Donald Trump has even earlier requested greater investments, but also a better quality contribution from European NATO members,” Višća said.
He emphasized that the amount of allocations alone is not enough. “You can invest even five percent of GDP, but if you do not change the structure of the armed forces and do not learn from the war in Ukraine, then that money does not mean much,” he emphasized.
Speaking about Europe, he said that the adjustment will take years. “European countries have lived in security comfort for thirty years, with cheap Russian energy and the American security umbrella,” he said.
He added that the increase in military investments will also have consequences for other sectors. “That money must come from other areas – social, culture, sports and public spending,” he said.
Višća believes that American policy towards Europe has changed. “The United States wants to shift its focus to China as its main global rival,” he said.
Speaking about Ukraine, he pointed out that the war showed NATO’s limitations. “NATO could not react directly because Ukraine is not a member of the Alliance,” he said.
He added that the war in the Middle East also showed how important allies are to Washington. “America has realized that it cannot do it alone and that it needs NATO allies,” he said.
Speaking about Bosnia and Herzegovina, he recalled the country’s first contacts with NATO. “Back in 1998, I entered NATO headquarters with a delegation from Bosnia and Herzegovina and then told my colleagues that we had symbolically already joined NATO,” he said.
However, he warned that real progress had not been made. “Bosnia and Herzegovina did enter the Membership Action Plan, but that process is practically dead today,” Višća said.
He stressed that NATO consistently respects the state framework of Bosnia and Herzegovina. “NATO Secretaries General come exclusively to the institutions of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and not to local centers of power,” he said.
However, he warned of serious security challenges. “Bosnia and Herzegovina is exposed to Russian hybrid action, both within and outside the institutions,” he said.
He added that Russian officials are openly threatening Bosnia and Herzegovina over its possible NATO membership. “The Russian ambassador is publicly saying that ‘anything could happen’ to us if we join NATO,” he pointed out.
Speaking about the European Union’s attitude towards Russian influence, he said that some countries have already started to react. “Austria has expelled Russian diplomats for activities related to hybrid action,” he said.
He assessed that Bosnia and Herzegovina formally cooperates with NATO, but without a clear political strategy. “We are adopting reform programs retroactively, for years that have already passed, which shows a serious problem in the approach,” he said.
He added that Bosnia and Herzegovina does not have a clear internal consensus on membership. “NATO will not accept a state that can block decisions due to the political influence of Moscow,” he said.
He emphasized that a serious communication strategy towards citizens is needed. “Citizens need to be explained what NATO membership brings, but also what obligations it entails,” said Višća.
Speaking about the state of the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina, he warned of personnel problems. “There is a large shortage of soldiers, the military profession is not attractive enough, and the system is not adapting to new security challenges and technologies,” he said.
He emphasized that defense does not only include the army. “The defense system includes civil protection, health institutions, infrastructure and the economy,” he said.
He also criticized the attitude towards the domestic defense industry. “Bosnia and Herzegovina has a developed defense industry, but it is not seriously involved in European military cooperation projects,” he said.
He concluded that the country must take a more serious approach to security reforms. “We cannot expect NATO membership if we do not show that we are ready to build a functional and modern defense system,” Višća said, Federalna writes.
