The helicopter crash in which Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed caused a shock in the Islamic Republic and the region.
However, analysts say, Raisi’s death is not expected to bring major changes to Tehran’s domestic and foreign policy.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in all major state affairs, and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are key centers of power in Iran, where the president’s power is limited.
“The death of Raisi will not cause a significant change in Iranian politics,” said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
“After all, the president is second in the hierarchy of power of the Islamic Republic, and strategic guidelines are set by the supreme leader.”
As president, Raisi oversaw a brutal crackdown on anti-establishment protests in 2022 and a tightening of the country’s morality laws.
The real significance of ultraconservative Raisi’s death, experts say, is that it could trigger a power struggle among hardliners in the country.
President Ebrahim Raisi’s post in the Iranian government remained vacant after his death in a helicopter crash on May 19th.
The death of Raisi, who many thought would become the next supreme leader, could also complicate Khamenei’s succession plans.
Raisi, the former head of the judiciary, was a longtime protégé of Khamenei, who was believed to be being groomed by the supreme leader as his successor.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at London-based Chatham House, said Raisi had “fitted himself in as a candidate” to take over from Khamenei and had even modeled his life after the 85-year-old supreme leader.
“(Raisi) was a loyal official willing to carry out the Supreme Leader’s orders through multiple institutions,” she said. “There are no obvious candidates that can fit into a lot of boxes.”
Raisi’s death left a vacancy to be filled. Elections must be held within 50 days, according to Iranian law, leaving the clerical establishment to scramble to find a suitable replacement.
The first favorites are Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Kalibaf and Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei.
Azizi said the next president could have a “significant impact on the overall trajectory” of Khamenei’s succession.
“As a result, it will lead to increased intraconservative competition (for the presidency),” he added.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said the upcoming election offers an opportunity for the clerical establishment to “follow a different course” by allowing a relatively competitive vote.
In 2021, Raisi convincingly won the presidential election, which many considered rigged. His victory consolidated the power of hardliners who took control of all three branches of government.
“But I doubt that the regime is devoting all its efforts to preparing for the succession after Khamenei, trying to create homogeneous conditions at the top of the power pyramid and not allowing any rivals (to access) this circle,” Vaez explained, Slobodna Evropa writes.
E.Dz.
