The smiles may soon disappear from the faces of many Bosnian and Herzegovinian (BiH) politicians. While they struggle to reach agreements, new solutions for the Western Balkans are being written – once again from outside. The United States (U.S.) and the European Union (EU) are united in their commitment to ensuring stability in BiH, Montenegro, Serbia, and Kosovo, the last column of the Balkans moving toward the EU. A non-paper from Washington lays out solutions, obligations, and a direction for progress, with the EU ready to implement them. The details, revealed by the BiH media, emphasize that before European integration the priority is to end territorial claims and conflicts in the Western Balkans.
Crisis and instability remain constants in the Western Balkans – burdensome but strategically important. Geographically already part of Europe, the region remains deeply influenced by external forces and internal political conflicts. It is a persistent challenge for U.S. and EU administrations, with varying degrees of success. Now, a new initiative under the Trump administration embarks on the task. This new non-paper charts a multi-step path toward stability, each step difficult but directed toward eventual EU membership.
The initial steps focus on preventing the dangerous aspirations of a united Serbia and Republika Srpska (RS), encapsulated in a declaration from the so-called All-Serbian Assembly, which revives the idea of a “Greater Serbia.”
“An agreement between the Republic of Serbia and BiH to annul the ‘Declaration on the Protection of National and Political Rights and the Common Future of the Serbian People,’ fully respecting the Dayton Agreement and BiH’s political sovereignty.”
The next focus of this Balkan Gordian knot is once again Serbia. The document notes that the ideologues of the “Serbian World” exert pressure on Montenegro through various channels, the most effective being the Serbian Orthodox Church. Furthermore, regarding Kosovo, Serbia is presented with a singular option:
“Signing an agreement between the Republic of Serbia and the Republic of Kosovo on full normalization of relations under the French-German-EU plan, which entails Serbia’s de facto recognition of the Republic of Kosovo and Kosovo’s establishment of the Community of Serb Municipalities in northern Kosovo.”
The ultimate goal is lasting peace in the Balkans, once again through agreements, leading toward NATO membership:
“A joint agreement on preserving and respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty (Serbia, BiH, and Kosovo) and an agreement on submitting a joint candidacy for NATO membership (Serbia, BiH, and Kosovo), while undertaking all necessary steps and measures for an accelerated EU accession process.”
In short, the aim is to stabilize and organize the Western Balkans. The sequence: mutual recognition, cooperation, adherence to the Schengen Agreement, application for NATO membership, and a roadmap with specific timelines for all states to gain conditional EU membership. All this is expected to be formalized at a conference on peace and cooperation in the Western Balkans.
