The chief inspector of German defense, General Carsten Breuer, warned NATO member states that they must prepare for a possible Russian attack within the next four years.
Breuer said that Russia produces hundreds of tanks annually, many of which could be used to attack the Baltic NATO member states by 2029 or even earlier.
He also insisted that NATO must remain united on the issue of the war in Ukraine, despite differing opinions recently expressed by Hungary and Slovakia.
General Breuer spoke on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, a defense summit in Singapore. His comments come several weeks before a NATO summit in The Hague, where, among other topics, member states’ budgets for NATO are expected to be discussed.
He added that NATO is facing a “very serious threat” from Russia, one he has never seen before in his 40 years of service.
He stated that Russia is strengthening its forces “to an enormous extent,” producing approximately 1.500 main battle tanks every year.
“Not every tank goes to the war in Ukraine, but they also go into stockpiles and into new military structures that are always directed toward the West. Russia has also produced four million rounds of 152 mm artillery ammunition in 2024, and not all of it went to Ukraine,” he said.
Breuer stated that “there is intent and there is stockpiling for a possible future attack on the Baltic NATO member states.”
Many fear an attack on a NATO country, as it could trigger a larger war between Russia and the United States (U.S.), which is a key NATO member. According to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, any attack on a member state would mean that the other members must come to its defense. General Breuer singled out the so-called Suwalki Gap, an area bordering Lithuania, Poland, Russia, and Belarus, as one of the most vulnerable.
“The Baltic states are really exposed to the Russians, aren’t they? And when you’re there, you really feel it… in the conversations we have there,” he said.
He added that the Estonians gave the analogy that they are close to a fire where “they feel the heat, see the flames, and smell the smoke,” while in Germany “you probably see a bit of smoke on the horizon, and nothing more.”
General Breuer said this shows the different perspectives among European countries regarding the threat of a possible Russian attack. Russia’s view of the war in Ukraine differs from the Western one, he said, and added: “Russia is trying to find ways to penetrate our defensive lines and test them.”
As an example, he cited recent attacks on undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, cyberattacks on European public transport, and unidentified drones spotted above German power plants and other infrastructure.
He also called on NATO member states to begin strengthening their armies and added that it would take years for the European military-industrial base to ramp up and reach the volume of armaments that Russia is producing.
