Radio Free Europe (RFE) analyzed was how much there is a fear of war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The interlocutors were Mirsad Tokaca, director of the Research and Documentation Center in Sarajevo, and Branko Todorovic, executive director of the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights based in Bijeljina.
They discussed whether the current fear of war is reminiscent of the fears that people in BiH felt before the 1992 war, who scares citizens the most about war, whether they are corrupt political leaders who want to make distraction from the difficult economic situation in the country, how dangerous are the nationalist incidents in ethnically mixed areas that have become more frequent recently, and whether the recent aggressive celebration of Republika Srpska (RS) Day with a parade of heavily armed police and anti-terrorist units has caused fear among returnees to RS.
Omer Karabeg: Does the current fear of war remind us of the fear that people in BiH felt at the beginning of the 1992 war? Mirsad Tokaca: There may be some similarities, but since then the situation has changed significantly. Now in BiH, it is completely different than it was in 1992. At the time, people did not believe that war was possible at all. Today, we deeply believe that war is possible. Of course, no normal person wants a war. But I believe it is an exaggeration to say that there is fear. There is no fear. There is a concern, but not fear. I say this from personal experience after the many contacts I have had with different people in the past months.
What will happen if an armed conflict begins
Branko Todorovic: There is a great deal of fear among the citizens of BiH. Today’s situation is very similar to that of the 1990s. There are very serious political tensions, certain groups,and an extreme part of political parties are ready for conflicts, while citizens are watching all this with astonishment and fear.
When we talk about whether there is a fear of war in BiH, we should not give estimates from our offices in Bijeljina, Mostar, Sarajevo, or Banja Luka. We need to go to local communities. These days I was in Janja and Koraj near Lopare, and in the past twenty days, I visited many local communities throughout BiHand talked to people. I have seen that there is a huge fear, people feel great uncertainty and are aware of the serious risk of conflict.
Omer Karabeg: Who spreads the fear of war the most today?
Mirsad Tokaca: There are two key actors – ethnonationalists or chauvinists and the media. The fear spread by the media does not correspond to reality. Colleague Todorovic stated that this should not be judged from the office. I agree with him. And I speak on the basis of contacts I have had with various people – generals, people from the Green Berets, and the Patriotic League, politicians, as well as NGO activists.
Corrupt politicians
Branko Todorovic: The fear of war is mostly spread by corrupt politicians, billionaires who have stolen billions in the past ten or fifteen years through various forms of corruption and abuse of power. The state of fear, interethnic and interreligious mistrust, hatred, and suspicion suit them.
Fear and imaginary political conflicts distract citizens from the difficult situation in which the country finds itself. From the catastrophic situation in education, health, and economy which was caused by corrupt mobsters in power. Some call them politicians because they have positions in political institutions, but they are primarily criminals, criminals in peace because the one who robs billions of his people is nothing but a criminal. They now want to save their looted millions by using fear of war to divert from their own corruption, crime, and abuse.
Secession
Omer Karabeg: Would the secession of RS lead to war? Milorad Dodik believes it would not. He is talking about a peaceful breakup.
Mirsad Tokaca: Dodik can say what he wants, but a peaceful separation is simply not possible. If he embarked on that adventure, the war would be inevitable. I have already mentioned – preserving the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the state of BiH is something that is above all of us. I am sorry to have to say this because I would like this country to live in peace for a long time to come. But not in the peace we have today but in positive peace. The peace that brings prosperity and economic development.
However, if anyone tries to break up the state and secede a piece of territory, they will face resistance. It is then a war. When I talked about the difference between 1992 and 2022, I was talking about it. The vast majority of people, probably 60 to 70 percent, are ready to defend this country by all possible means, including armed conflict. Whoever enters such an adventure must be aware that he will face resistance. If someone wants that, I recommend him not to go on such an adventure. We need to turn to ourselves and our relations within BiH and live the tradition of our country.
E.Dz.
Source: Avaz
