The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil surpassed 85 dollars today, reinforcing expectations that retail fuel prices in Bosnia and Herzegovina will increase in the coming days as tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel uncertainty in global energy markets.
The latest escalation of the crisis in the region, coupled with growing fears of inflation, has extended the upward trend in oil prices that began around three weeks ago.
After fuel prices in Bosnia and Herzegovina dropped by around one convertible mark over the past month and a half, experts now say a new increase is inevitable.
Energy expert Almir Bećarević estimates that retail fuel prices could rise by between 5 and 7 pfennigs per litre, although he does not expect prices to significantly exceed the psychological threshold of 3 BAM per litre.
“At the moment, prices are below 3 BAM. It is possible that at some petrol stations they could go above 3 KM, but a price range between 2.70 and 2.90 KM per litre is more realistic,” Bećarević said.
The latest developments have once again raised questions about why fuel distributors tend to react quickly to increases in global oil prices while reductions at the pump often occur much more slowly.
According to energy experts, transportation expenses and refinery processing costs have also risen, contributing to slower price reductions. They stress that market inspections remain essential to prevent unjustified increases in retail fuel prices.
Authorities say the situation is currently more stable than it was in March, when fuel traders in Republika Srpska were fined a total of 860,000 BAM for irregularities.
“The market inspection continues to monitor fuel price formation, and traders are obliged to comply with the margins prescribed by the decision of the Republika Srpska Government in order to protect the living standards of citizens,” said Dušanka Nikolić, spokeswoman for the Republika Srpska Inspectorate.
The Republika Srpska Government recently extended its fuel subsidy programme of 10 pfennigs per litre until mid-August. The measure currently applies to 45 fuel distributors across the entity.
In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, fuel prices remain subject to regulated margin limits.
Economists warn that constant fluctuations in energy prices continue to create uncertainty for businesses. Saša Grabovac, from the SWOT Association of Economists, said companies generally include a reserve in their financial planning to prepare for possible energy price increases.
“They always leave a certain reserve for potential price increases in their planning. This is also why products linked to energy costs do not automatically become cheaper when fuel prices decline,” Grabovac explained.
With military exchanges involving Iran and the United States continuing, along with concerns over the possible closure of or additional charges for tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts believe there is little reason to expect fuel prices to stabilize or decline in the near future.
