The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the Palestinian movement Hamas – which the United States (U.S.) and European Union (EU) have designated as a terrorist organization – has plunged the Middle East into crisis.
However, his killing in an attack in Iran on July 31st, allegedly by Israel, and the increased risk of a wider war also have implications for the broader region, including Iran’s eastern neighbors, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Experts say it is unlikely that a potential regional war involving Iran would directly draw in Afghanistan, ruled by the Taliban, and Pakistan, two countries that maintain cordial relations with Tehran.
“These attacks will not drag either of these countries into direct involvement in the conflict, such as offering to send fighters,” said Marvin Weinbaum, director of Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
‘Worsening life for Afghans’
Iran has friendly relations with the Taliban. Tehran is also the biggest trading partner of the cash-strapped Taliban government, which is not internationally recognized. Kabul relies on Iranian ports for most of its imports and exports amid tensions with neighboring Pakistan.
The Islamic Republic is also home to about four million Afghan migrants and refugees. Remittances sent home by them sustain many impoverished families in Afghanistan, which has faced an economic crisis since the Taliban took power in 2021.
Graeme Smith, a senior analyst for Afghanistan at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said that increasing tensions in the Middle East “could have destabilizing consequences for the fragile situation in Afghanistan.”
Smith said there is a risk that a conflict involving Iran could harden the country’s border with Afghanistan and “worsen life for Afghans.”
Pakistan will not be ‘directly involved’
Hundreds of thousands of Afghans and millions of Pakistanis work as laborers and traders in the oil-rich Arab Gulf countries.
A potential regional war could disrupt the influx of Afghan and Pakistani migrant workers going to the Gulf countries. This would deal a significant blow to Afghanistan and Pakistan, as both countries heavily rely on remittances sent from abroad.
In Pakistan, certain parties and media have called on Islamabad to take a tougher stance against Israel, which the South Asian country has not formally recognized.
Weinbaum, however, said that “the general sense among (Pakistani) policymakers is that the country has enough of its own security concerns to avoid being directly involved.”, RSE writes.
E.Dz.
