The new war conflicts in the territory of Israel and Palestine have once again opened up questions of possible economic consequences in the world, as well as in our region. Every military conflict has its price, and the best example of a negative trend was shown by the war in Ukraine.
The loss of human lives, the uncertain future, the geopolitical position of the country, its influence and lobbying on foreign policy events are often linked to economic flows on the global market.
It is a fact that the economic consequences of the conflict are localized, but economists have also warned in the past that a long-term conflict has and can have a global impact, especially on the prices of oil and oil derivatives. The war in the territory of Israel and Palestine often led to sanctions and blockades of the largest producers who used to push barrel prices to unimaginable high amounts.
Economic analyst Igor Gavran, speaking about the possible consequences of the latest conflicts in the Gaza Strip, states that everything will depend on the duration and possible spread of the conflict.
“The prices of oil and gold were already temporarily increased as an immediate reaction, and there were also some disturbances on the stock markets, but all this has now mostly stabilized and the further movement will depend on the previously mentioned factors. Of course, the greatest economic damage is suffered by Palestine, above all the area of Gaza, but given the overall tragedy and loss of lives, the economy is now the least of their concerns,” said Gavran.
He adds that if there is an end to the conflict soon or at least everything remains limited to the Gaza area and its surroundings, the direct effects on the world economy will be minimal.
“But if there is an expansion to other countries or a reaction of some other globally significant economies in support of Palestine (eg a drastic cut in oil production that could be taken by producers like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates – UAE, Qatar and others, to increase the price as pressure on the West to stopping the Israeli attacks is theoretically possible, although there is no announcement about it and it is not expected), then the rest of the world would certainly experienceit as well”, he believes.
In the end, he stressed that the current economic effects on the rest of the world are minimal, but if there is a prolonged war and especially the spread of the conflict, much larger and wider economic consequences are possible.
“It is impossible to predict them exactly because everything depends on how long it would last and how much it would spread,” he said.
This conflict is definitely not needed for the citizens of Israel because we know that the country has experienced a change of government in recent months, and instead of the previous centre-right coalition, Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of Likud, the largest party in this Middle Eastern country, returned to power.
The new conflicts with Hamas only suit Netanyahu and his supporters because it will give him time to completely divert his focus from the judicial reform he is announcing, which has been cause for protests for months in this country, which is why, as analysts say, he will risk his own country’s economy just to would regain the trust of the citizens, for the sake of new military goals and the land offensive on the Gaza Strip, which is expected soon, Klix.ba reports.
E.Dz.
